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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (1566)	3/14/2001 4:19:41 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 23153

Energyplay, RE: <<The markets have seemed funny the past few days - not just down, but different. Like there's something big and nasty just offstage (Japan ? something else ? I don't know)>> I know that sounds like the start of a campfire story late at night with Don's coyotes howling in the distance and the wind rustling through the high branches of the trees, but I think so too. Maybe it's because we are watching too closely. Then again, maybe not. I see one difference being that the question is becoming not whether we have a problem but rather whether we can solve it. That's fear talking and I think it is partly because we have not had the strong leadership presence that we had before in Washington. I don't see Dubya or his boys getting up there and letting everyone know that they are on top of it. Too many unknowns and too much talk about how things were already bad when they got elected will not help them or the markets. A better approach would be to say that they inherited some problems but nothing that they couldn't handle and that the economic strength of the American economy is on line. Instead of a hands off attitude, I would like to know that they are going to attack the energy problems and that they are closely watching the markets and the economy. In other words, I think that there would be a lot more world and domestic ease and a lot less extreme reaction if the Bush admin would tip its hand on whether it intended to be a hands off or hands on administration. I believe we needed an adjustment but not a meltdown which we may have if things don't turn in the economy. Why not fix the problem before it gets to be a real problem. If left alone the markets can, and will, get out of whack and the resonance within and between economies will reverberate and create long term problems and imbalances that are much worse than the ones we have now. Either that or its getting real late and my fingers are going on their own and typing stuff that is ---- oh! make the bad fingers stop, stop ... Maybe it will look better to me in the later hours of this day. I'm getting in the mood to short the federal mint soon. Ed

To: energyplay who wrote (1566)	3/14/2001 7:21:07 AM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

Something different now... could it be the increasing realization that things could get allot worse very quickly and not turn around on a dime? The DOW's beginning decent from its recent safe trading range is enough for me. There are to many stocks priced to perfection that still have room to fall (GE). Looking at the futures this morning I thought maybe a war started over night. I hope I can raise some more cash this morning without much pain. At this point it seems there is much more pain to be shared with little hope of detecting a brighter future on the horizon.

To: energyplay who wrote (1566)	3/14/2001 9:44:10 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Normally this might be the point in time (if we are down 5% or more today) when I might take a shot at the long side. Look at margin debt. This is through January and you know a couple tens of billion more has been liquidated since. It's now more normal in relation to stock capitalization. So the speculators are wiped out. Also seeing the bears too cocky on chat lines of stocks I've been short. Covered my SCH short at 16.20 on Monday. Too much put buying as well. dismalscience.com But in the intermediate term, the thing that has amazed me so far is how little Joe and Martha Public have sold (they quit buying and are just flat). There is also very little cracking in the faith in Oz (Greenspan). There is a sense he can save the day. In sum, I think today will mark the bottom of this leg (if we get capitulation action: defined as high lopsided down volume, down over say 6%, I don't want to see a close on the high however)and that a 20-25% bear market rally will ensue. That will be followed in a few months by another dip and retest (and probably a failure) of the lows today, and a gradual drawn out (a year) Joe and Martha liquidation phase between 1400-2200 Nasdaq and 800-1050 S&P (has some catching up to do given overinvestment in index funds). The dangers are the overshoots below that, and those would be historic buying opportunities. Very wild and dangerous phase. I'm loaded with PM stocks (you can see why on Gold Monitor thread), so I'm staying clear of both the long and short side now. Good time to lose money on both. I'm interested in buying Japan when some of these big banks actually collapse. I will pick up longs at the low end of ranges noted, and on overshoots. Right now (other than PM's) am only long some NG and oil (primarily Canadian: CED, PEL, AXL).