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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edamo who wrote (33350)	3/14/2001 7:53:04 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Pro Forum: Art Hogan, Market Strategist Wednesday March 14, 7:01 am Eastern Time Forbes.com By Tara Murphy <<A tax cut could be coming, and Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., says with last week's National Association of Purchasing Managers report and job creation numbers showing signs of life in the U.S. economy, it could be a win for the stock market too. According to Hogan, a tax cut would give investors more money to spend, making their wallets feel thicker. That could stimulate stock buying, says Hogan, especially if the cut is retroactive and applies to fiscal 2001. Forbes.com spoke to Hogan on March 9, one session before the Nasdaq slipped below 2,000. Forbes.com: Will a tax cut mean relief for the stock market? Hogan: The average investor is going to feel psychologically wealthier, and that's going to help investing, savings rates and things of that nature. Functionally, [a tax cut] doesn't work unless the economy is moving in the same direction, which I believe it is. So the timing may be perfect. The economy is turning around, so I think that the Federal Reserve Board is being less aggressive in their stance on a lot of things. The Federal Reserve Board, which gets a chance to look around the corner, is saying that the economy is looking better. So if that's the case and we throw a tax cut in, that typically accelerates the turnaround in the economy. So how does it help the market? When the economy turns around, so does the market. It helps consumer confidence. It helps consumer spending. But fiscal policy changes don't historically work when the economy is still in a fall. So if this were something that we tried to institute last year, when the economy was moving down, it wouldn't have been effective--it doesn't have a stimulative effect. It would work this year if we get it done. What sectors stand to benefit the most? It's typically a broad-market thing, but typically the first leg of the economic turnaround benefits the consumer nondurables. Then, as the second leg plays out, it's the durables and tech and telecom shares. If the tax cut is retroactive for 2001, will that spark stock buying? I think so. If you get a tax cut, it's a psychological benefit, and if they make it retroactive, then it will have a positive effect. Clearly, we are going to get some kind of a tax cut. We just don't know to what extent it's going to be.>>

To: edamo who wrote (33350)	3/14/2001 8:39:40 AM
From: Voltaire	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 65232

Morning Damos, you do everything with caution and I admire that. I know you won't agree with what I am about to say but we come from two different arenas. Today we should get a great example of the Houses working with the Fed and at the same time protecting their inventories. We should see a tremendous reversal this afternoon from the worse of the day - probably by as much as 70%, certainly by tomorrow afternoon.. I will put low ball orders in to buy my existing calls back while I play golf. For all out there - NO PROBLEM IN HERE, THIS IS WHERE THE HOUSES WILL BE YOUR FRIEND. Volts