Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (8536)	3/14/2001 9:01:03 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Respond to of 196591

Alexander Resources Identifies Four Key Stages to Full 3G Wireless and Mobile Internet Availability and Acceptance individual.com [ And here's another reseach report making predictions. - DPR ] DALLAS, March 13 /PRNewswire/ via NewsEdge Corporation - Resulting from its ongoing research in 3G Wireless and Mobile Internet, Alexander Resources, a leading research, consulting and education firm specializing in wireless communications, has determined that deployment and acceptance of these next generation wireless systems and services will occur in four distinct stages: -- Stage One: Data Network Deployment -- Stage Two: Interoperation and Standards Convergence -- Stage Three: New Wireless Device Proliferation -- Stage Four: Full 3G Wireless and Mobile Internet Realization Stage One will be characterized by the targeted deployment of wireless data communications capabilities within existing networks through overlay and replacement and the introduction of packet switching. Specific focus will be given to optimizing and segmenting network capacity, increasing operational efficiency and lowering costs. Stage Two will accelerate market acceptance through the evolution, harmonization and reduction in the number and types of wireless terminal and related platform standards (2G SMS, WAP, and i-Mode to 2.5/3G standards and convergence of EPOC, WinCE, and Palm OS). Text will begin the transition to multi-media graphics and mobile graphical user interfaces will begin to appear. This will result in service transparency, improved ease of use, and the reduction in content development and deployment time and cost. Stage Three will further accelerate market acceptance through the greater availability of new and sophisticated wireless terminals, devices and interfaces. In addition to broad availability of Smartphones with larger screens, wireless interfaces will become popular in appliances, machines and other fixed products and systems. This will in turn spur further investment in higher throughput network infrastructures. Stage Four will represent the full realization of 3G Wireless and Mobile Internet capabilities. Utilizing new mobile operating systems and programming languages, it will be characterized by new personalized messaging services and fully adapted access to the entire universe of public and private databases, applications, and information sources. Additional information on this research and other issues critical to the success of 3G Wireless and the Mobile Internet are addressed in two new business seminars produced by Alexander Resources. The "Making Money in the U.S. Wireless Internet Market" seminar is the only business seminar to address the hurdles, opportunities, strategies and tactics to maximizing profits and revenues in the U.S. Wireless Internet market. The "3G Wireless: Promises and Realities" seminar is the only seminar to provide a critical and objective examination of third generation wireless networks and services in the context of market, customer and political realities. Additional information can be obtained by calling Alexander Resources at 972-818-8225, on the web at www.AlexanderResources.com or by e-mail at seminars@AlexanderResources.com. About Alexander Resources Since 1990 Alexander Resources' educational seminars, conferences, research reports and consulting services have enabled a wide variety of telecommunications manufacturers, carriers and service providers to identify, understand and capture emerging opportunities in wireless communications. SOURCE Alexander Resources CONTACT: Jerry Kaufman of Alexander Resources, 972-818-8225, or JKaufman@AlexanderResources.com Web site: alexanderresources.com

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (8536)	3/14/2001 9:37:33 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196591

Dennis, << I don't take these forecasts as gospel and a wish others didn't >> You have made a most important point. Forecasting one year is hard enough, but beyond 2 years is crystal ball gazing at best, and one heck of a lot can happen in a 5 year span. This is dramatized by one of the early slides in Dr. Jacobs recent presentation at the 2001 analysts meeting where he shows forecasts for handset sales from EMC, Micrologic Research, and Cahners In-Stat. They vary widely, and Micrologics are way out of whack, relative to the others. EMC (and sister company ARC) always forecast very conservatively. Strategis is conservative as is Gartner Dataquest. Cahners is always comparatively aggressive. I commented on the wide variance in handset forecasts between Cahners and Strategis last year to Slacker. Micrologics and Strategy Analytics are two firms I am not familiar with at all. We tend to see summary data and press release summaries from expensive reports published by these companies. The devil, however, is in the details that we don't see. The "details" explain the trends and assumptions that go into their projections, and without access to that detail it is difficult to account for the variances from the summary data and conclusions of one report vs. another. << their findings have to be taken with a large grain of salt. >> I agree. Useful, but none should be taken stand alone, and without trying to understand their assumptions, methodologies, and bias (if any). As was pointed out in the link you reference "Mulligan warns to beware of analysts who don't disclose their methodologies." - Eric -