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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80022)	3/14/2001 9:42:09 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

One point I disagree with -- while a larger proportion of NG will be produced for electrical generation that does not imply sustained increase demand. Much of the industrial demand is dependent on the economy continuing to hum along -- it won't. Even pollyanna predictions don't anticipate huge growth in industrial demand, but I suspect such demand will fall -- also many of the NG fired plants are really jsut a form of insurance -- low duty-cycle machines -- bought to insure the purchaser against very high electrical energy prices that occur 20 - 40 days out of the year. There is currently a bubble in these machines -- California's problems notwithstanding Bush has reversed himself on CO2 and I applaud him -- not on economics -- though there is much to be said on that -- but because the science of global warming is poor Can't speak at length for our own situation -- but there are some scenarios that I'm considering that could result in us having a surplus -- I'm sure we are not the only ones in the same boat Bottom line -- NG prices higher for a few years? Yes, certainly Back to where we've seen this winter? Possibly next year, but no way after that ...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80022)	3/16/2001 11:26:45 AM
From: Tom M	Respond to of 436258

Heinz, read that Hathaway article, good summary - thanks. I'm too well aware of much he had to say, just frustrated our politics have let the bankers get away with it. Goldman Sachs(etc) psychology overwhelming individuals is one thing, but when are the institutions that hire them to ruin their business/industry (ASL/hedging) going to start looking out for themselves? Should be soon as they know they can't trust them anymore. As for applying the NG example to gold & other resources, let the games begin, or rather end. -g-