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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ColtonGang who wrote (6373)3/14/2001 11:31:19 AM
From: ColtonGang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6445
 
George W........are you listening ___________
Economic Delusion, Political Disaster
"After the Great Depression, the Republicans were out of office for 20 years."

March 11, 2001

By JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH
From The New York Times

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — I am not, in my own view or that of others, a plausible political adviser to the Bush administration, but I would like to
suggest that it could be on course for a powerful political disaster. Following a
period of insane speculation, we are thought now to be facing a recession, possibly even, so far as there is a difference, a depression.

On this the new administration agrees; it has given its support for two measures for strengthening the economy. Both have proved useless in the past and now owe their acceptance to personal attractiveness and political convenience. They are reliance on the Federal Reserve and reliance on tax reduction for support to the economy.

The reliance on the Federal Reserve and its cuts in the discount rate proceeds from the wonderful convenience of having an action available that is above politics and much more mentally agreeable than anything of substantive value. Ever since 1913, the founding year of the Federal Reserve, there have been great hopes for the stabilizing effect of its actions.

The succession of boom and bust, or inflation and recession, has continued ever since. During the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve was wholly ineffective; during World War II, when inflation was a serious menace and we took life seriously, Federal Reserve action was simply set aside. The Reserve owes its continuing standing to the thought that bankers have some peculiar effect on the economy and, especially, to the exceptional convenience of having a remedy that can be simply announced, without legislators and without regard for the great complexities that govern economic behavior. Also, needless to say, it now owes much to the extraordinary theatrical talent of Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman. To rely on the Reserve as a remedy for an emerging recession is optimism carried to the point of foolishness.

The other political threat to the administration comes from tax reduction. This, as support to the economy, was announced immediately by President Bush on taking office. Most of the benefit, as now more than amply agreed, goes to the very affluent. In an economic downturn, those so favored do not spend, because they have no particular need. That is an aspect of wealth. And given the uncertainties of the economy, they do not readily initiate or invest.

It is true that middle- and lower- income folk do spend, but they do not get a
significant share of the benefit, and the very poor get none at all. And such expenditure as there is here goes for the daily necessities of life, not for the things on which recovery depends. To repeat, those of middle and lower income are not the beneficiaries in any case. The effect of tax reduction is not on the economy but on the pleasure and political gratitude of those who receive it.

Since the days of Herbert Hoover, who tried tax reduction with no result,
depression or recession has been the political misfortune of government with the strongest political effect. After the Great Depression, the Republicans were out of office for 20 years. This sort of rejection is what the Bush administration, substituting the preference and enjoyment of the affluent for reality, is risking. If there is a recession and no remedial action beyond that of Mr. Greenspan and the lowered expectations of the Internal Revenue Service, the administration faces political difficulty, even disaster.

I repeat, it is not my tendency to render advice to a Republican president, but this prospect is sufficiently grim for so many that one should break even the best established rules.

John Kenneth Galbraith, a professor emeritus of economics at Harvard, is the author of "The Good Society."

nytimes.com



To: ColtonGang who wrote (6373)3/25/2001 5:37:25 PM
From: lee kramer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6445
 
DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes 3/24/01

I walked into Doc Kronkite’s office five minutes early with a bounce in my step, a smile on my face and a blueberry muffin in my pocket. Doc’s receptionist, the alluringly lovely Miss Tushbumper returned the smile, the smile I was certain she kept in reserve all week just for me, then she turned her porcelain face a touch so I could plant a wet smacker on her cheek. An innocent ritual, like two old friends shaking hands, but a major fantasy that could lead who knew where, in my mushy mind.

“Doctor will be with you directly,” she cooed.

“No rush.” I answered. No rush indeed.

Too soon the buzzer sounded. Miss Tushbumper pressed the intercom button and I heard “Send in the clone.” Doc was a major-league malapropist. What he meant of course was “Send in the clown.” Mmm.

Doc wiped the smile off my face faster than Superman could change from a mild-mannered reporter to the man of steel.

“Today’s the day,” said doc Kronkite, pulling hard at his Mel-Brooks like hair.

“The day? What day?” I asked, nervously.

“The day for your annual check-up.” Doc said.

“But doc, I had my last physical exam just last month,” I cried.

“No dunderhead. Not a physical checkup, a mental checkup.”

“Oh. Is it really necessary? I feel pretty good in the noggin.”

“We shall see. Now assume the position.”

I eased my now trembling body onto his lumpy couch.

“As you know, I’ve had some recent troubles in the market,” said the doc. “So I’ve decided to consult a fortune-teller.”
Somewhat taken aback I said “Doc, why not seek out a market analyst for help? Or even a CNBC expert? That would be a happy medium.”

“That would be rare, but I might just take your advice,” he said.

“Well done,” I replied.

“First though, before we begin the test,” he continued, “talk on me about your trading week.”

“Golly doc, it was terrific. The DOW broke on Tuesday and we went short. It continued on Wednesday and Thursday until about 2:15. We sniffed out a rally, covered our shorts, and went long. Terrific rally late Thursday that carried over into Friday.”

“So a new bull market we’ve got?” asked the doc excitedly.

“No doc, so far it’s just a rally within the bear market.”

“So what did you short? I’m becoming a specialist on selling short you know.”

“I know doc. Well, we caught the bio’s when they cracked, AMGN and GENZ and ENZN. And we shorted the brokers and then IFIN and CAH. Did ok doc. Then we went long ADBE, ADVP and a few others.”

“Ok, enough with this cutterbup banter,” he said. He meant buttercup of course. “On with the test.”

“Gee doc, do we really have to? I don’t like being tested. Tests give me a bad case of hives and a severe case of locked bowels. Can’t we do it next week?” I pleaded.

“Absolutely not. You didn’t get to the top of the trading game without ten years of analysis with me. This annual test is critical to your continued success. I’m a specialist in test-giving you know.”

“I know doc.”

“First question: You’re given the option of making love to Britney Spears or daytrading. What do you do?”

“Gee, doc. Couldn’t you start me off with an easy one?”

“That was the easy one. Answer please, you have five more seconds.”

“Doc, I’d choose daytrading.”

“Wrong, very wrong. I knew your were batty in the belfry, but not this cuckoo.” he said, shaking his head while making a violent slash with his pen.

“Next question: You’re on the way to the movies. They have ten screens. Do you choose “Wall Street”, “Trading Places” or” My Dinner With Andre?”

“That’s an easy one doc. I’d get a jumbo box of popcorn and see “Wall Street.”

“ Wrong again.” Another slash of the pen.

“Next question: You’re one of the members of the TV show Survivor, the test of man against nature filmed in the Australian outback. A contest is about to begin, the winner can choose an evening alone with the woman of your choice, a bottle of Lafitte Rothschild ’79, a CD player with Santana, Aerosmith, Dylan and Harry Connick Jr. CD’s or a computer with a direct link to the exchanges for the duration of your stay.”

“The computer doc. Absolutely. The computer.”

“You are now ‘ought for three.” Another violent slash.

“Doc, can we do this next week? I guess I need to study. Anything I can do to earn extra credit? I asked hopefully.

“No. You’ve flunked. After ten years of deep analysis you have failed. Actually, it is I who have failed you. I thought you were ready to fly from my nest. This test confirms that several more years of analysis are in order. Perhaps we shall begin again with more kryptonizing.” He meant hypnotizing.

“I devoted an entire chapter on kryptonizing in my book, “The Truss: Friend or Foe” a best seller at only $59.95. Read on it, read.”
“I will doc, I’ll mesmorize it. Commit it to memory even. And doc?”

“Yes?”

“Thanks. I see now that I’m in dire need of your continued help.”

“That’s quite alright. Did I tell you I’m a specialist? See miss Tusbumper on the way out. Make appointments, lots of appointments.”

“I will doc. I want to be a good trader. Guess I just got lucky this week huh?”

“Luck is the residue of hard and lengthy psychiatric analysis with a specialist. Did I mention I’m a specialist?”

“I think so. Ok doc, see you next week.”

Lee Kramer