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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (11698)	3/14/2001 9:52:16 AM
From: Rambi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Out of the cheap SPXs at 20. (Got out of the 15s too early, but was doing penance)

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (11698)	3/14/2001 12:00:48 PM
From: fswep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37746

Velociraptor, I agree that the Japanese banking problem is being ignored. Greenspan has a problem here. If he lowers interest rates to save the US investor, the foreign bondholders will liquidate and move their money home faster. Japan has also the problem that the Bank of Japan has been shoring up its banks with funds from the Postal Savings and Retirement accounts of their citizens for the past 10 years. Now these cash cows are tapped out. They need cash. Their US investments are all that they have now for cash. The cow problem in Europe could also cause some cashing in of US Treasuries. My bet is 50/50 that there will not be a rate cut in the near future, as GS tries to hold on to the foreign funds. Now we are in rally mode for the Fed cut, but IMO this time will be used as time to liquidate for the big boys. Time for little guys to move out of the way, I have. I just buy less than 10% of my cash, and it is only in options. I was running straddles, but ended up stuck in 4 call contracts, three that will exp. Saturday. Did just buy 200 bucks of Csco 20 mar puts, when price hit 21. That’s my Casino bet. Mostly, I think I will watch this week. I see this bounce as way for the funds to sell their shares. Also if you look closely the MMs sell off their inventory (bounce) just before another big sell off. As for the all saving tax cut, think of what will happen to the "surplus" if there is a forced liquidation of the 200+ bil. that the Japanese have in US bonds, let alone how much is in the stock markets, options and futures (hedges). I don’t know, the old adage is that when everyone is bearish, its time to buy. Those old adages where used up on me since last Aug. I don't believe anything that comes from the "Street". Took a look at your page, I'm impressed. Also how do you find anytime to trade while working on a degree? I'm working on a MBA in Capital Finance and have very little time. I'm doing research for a couple of projects: "Single Stock Futures" for a derivatives course and "Wash Sales" for a tax course. Do you have any interesting sources? Thanks, Ward