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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (8545)	3/14/2001 11:19:27 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 196545

Keith, << It seems that GSM is running out of steam in South America >> Glad to see ya back so we can disagree some more. <g> My observation is somewhat different. It seems to be picking up steam ... fairly rapidly, one country at a time, in a region where it has had almost no footprint whatsoever. There was very little GSM in place, or in development, in Latin America until recently. TIM was the first GSM operator (Chile) in 1998, I believe.and Chile accounts for 68% of the GSM subscribers in LA, with another 16% in French WI and 11% in Venezuala. As of today there are only 1.7 million subscribers in LA (there were only 1.3 end of September v. 10.1 million CDMA and v. million 24.1 million TDMA). At the end of September there were 56.8 million subscribers in Latin America and GSM was only 3% of the subscriber base. Breakout as follows: * TDMA = 40% * AMPS = 40% * CDMA = 17% * GSM = 3% There is some rapid change occurring (despite the Brazilian Auction woes). GSM has its foot in the door. Anatel decision changed things. The availability of GSM overlays for 800 MHz changed things. There could be some more opening up of 900 MHz or 1800 MHz spectrum. TDMA technology flips that could have gone CDMA, can now potentially go GSM. Bell South International and SBC are wild cards here. Despite Lynette Luna's prognostication that BSI could go CDMA (1st made last September) that has not yet been decided. These flips when they occur, will be important decisions for those of us invested in QCOM, just as the Anatel decision potentially had a negative impact last year. Mexican operator Telcel's flip from TDMA to to GSM/GPRS is significant. GSM will be deployed nationwide in Mexico TIM will be a player in Brazil (and soon Bolivia and Argentina), as well as Peru and Chile. The wireless landscape of Latin America has changed dramatically in one year. Fastest growing technology in LA next few years is bound to be GSM, so far as I can tell. No IMT-2000 2GHZz spectrum auctioned yet in LA. Brazil will be first. That may be interesting. We may see some players we haven't yet seen fight it out there, particularly if the economic climate improves. - Eric -