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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (80190)	3/14/2001 12:05:36 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I am making a killing today. -ggg- And no, I'm not covering yet. Message 15495654

To: Lucretius who wrote (80190)	3/14/2001 12:34:54 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Wednesday March 14, 8:57 AM US Economist Sees Cash Withdrawal Risks At Japan Banks By John Parry Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES (This item originally ran at 1757 GMT Tuesday.) NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Some Japanese banks could face major deposit withdrawals if the country's equities markets fail to revive soon, a prominent U.S.-based economist who follows Japan warned Tuesday. "We fear that if the Nikkei does not rally with vigor over the next 18 days, we could see major cash withdrawals from the financial system starting as soon as mid-April," when balance sheets for the fiscal year are published, said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, in a research note Tuesday. The extensive cross-shareholdings of Japanese banks, estimated at around Y32 trillion, make the banks' balance sheets highly vulnerable to the current slide in stock prices. On Tuesday, the Nikkei, Japan's benchmark stock market index, reached a 16-year low, falling 351.67 points, or 2.9%, to 11819.70, the lowest finish since January 1985. That drove it under a level that Weinberg sees as a threshold for many banks' financial well-being. "With the Nikkei below 12,000, we are increasingly concerned that negative net worth will be reported for at least a few banks, insurance companies, pension funds or other financial institutions for this fiscal year," Weinberg said. Weinberg added that he "cannot exclude the possibility" that some banks "will be shut down and declared insolvent by the FSA", the Japanese government's Financial Services Agency. "Even if institutions are not closed, however, we are concerned about a flight of money - deposits withdrawn, policies cashed out, pensions transferred - if a negative bottom line is reported," Weinberg said. "Would you keep your money in your bank if it published a balance showing it was technically bust?" For now, the only policy option that could improve Japanese banks balance sheets before month-end "is an immediate and huge depreciation of the yen," enabling Japanese institutions to repatriate funds at an exchange rate that was more advantageous to them. A 10% devaluation of the yen would add $230 billion to the national balance sheet, Weinberg calculated. Midday Tuesday in New York, the dollar was trading at Y120.23. -By John Parry; Dow Jones Newswires; john.parry@dowjones.com; 201-938-2096 sg.biz.yahoo.com