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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8552)	3/14/2001 12:36:18 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196536

The CEO of Nextel just said they are going to 1x! Deploy mid 02! Woohooo. Won't be significant until 03.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8552)	3/14/2001 8:15:30 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196536

Ramsey, << you surprised me >> Sometimes I surprise myself. <g> << With so much information available in recent weeks >> What information that was made available in recent weeks that pertains to LA did I miss? << you would made such an erroneous call >> I am perfectly capable of making erroneous calls. My best one last year was that Anatel would not dedicate spectrum in 1800 MHz for auctions. Eric erred. My second best was projecting that although CDMA would fall short of the 100 million subs projection made by CDG for cum 2000 subs (100% YOY growth) that they would achieve 90 million. Eric erred. We'll have to wait till about this time next year to see if I made another erroneous call when I said that GSM would most likely be the fastest growing technology in LA, this year, and another year for next year. Feel free to remind me if I erred again. If CDMA is the fastest growing technology in LA, I certainly won't mind erring. << SA is not about technology, it is about money >> To some degree I agree with you. Heck ... if it was all about air interface technology, every carrier in the world would be using CDMA. It was about money, and certainly vendor financing money back in 95 after A&B block, here in NA. It was also about money and vendor financing (or lack of same) in 1996 when vendor financing dried up ... witness NextWave and DCR/Pocket ... and the D, E, & F Block guys really got their clock cleaned. << Argentina ... the only way they can launch anything is via vendor financing. >> LA has not been about vendor financing to date (although it may have played a role in the establishment of CDMA. It did not in what little GSM is there (primarily TIM). It did not in establishing TDMA as the primary digital technology of LA. Local manufacturing (Ericsson) and local relationships (Ericsson - dating back to AMPS) and expenditure of resources (Ericsson) on developing IS-136 with the 3 sisters ugly (McGaw - now AWS, Bell South, SBC) of the UWCC did. The 3 vendors most prone to vendor financing are the Americans (NT, MOT, LU) and they are pretty much up to their armpits with that right now. As for Argentina ,,, the 3rd largest potential market in LA ... right now it takes a back seat to Brazil & Mexico. Argentina right now has 7 + million subs and 5 million of those are AMPS. There is a good game there for TIM in competition with GTE and BSI, and its worth watching. << Whoever wants to buy that business is going to dictate the technology used. >> Vendor Financing is a tactical or strategic maneuver. NT, MOT, LU, and others (Siemens, Alcatel) are right now doing financing to stay in the ball game and the carriers are dictating the technology, or at least so it seems to me. Vendor financing will not affect TIM's technology choice, perhaps it did with Telcel in Mexico. It could possibly affect BSI's but I don't think it will affect SBC's. << It is, in my opinion, meaningless to discuss these percentage numbers >> We all approach investing differently. In choosing investments, I look at percentage (market share and technology growth). These are certainly not the only metrics I look at, but I tend to invest in market leaders or companies that have the capability to become market leaders. The fact that CDMA lost market share last year does not overly concern me ... too short a time to worry about ... and my view is very long ... but it sets a flag. I'll continue to watch the percentages of cdmaOne/cdma2000 growth in emerging markets, and LA with its very low cellular penetration is most certainly that. I'll also wait (and wait, and wait) for W-CDMA rev to kick in. Edit: On the subject of Vendor Financing - I just listened to Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo's archived ML presentation. he makes some interesting comments toward the end, specifically about Vendor financing. okia has used it sparingly till now. They were certainly in no position to use it in the States in 1995. He makes no bones about the fact they are now in a position to do so, and will use it where it is strategically important. Obviously, with a plant in Mexico, and a new one in Brazil, LA is of strategic importance to them. - Eric -