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Technology Stocks : BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (1630)	3/15/2001 3:01:11 AM
From: Spytrdr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2477

Gregory, this is more art than science, so take it with a grain of salt and do your own DD. charts are like a Rorschach test, where i see a potential collapse after the dam breaks at $ 29, someone else might see rock solid bottom where it will bounce and proceed in its relentless rise to the heavens once Greenspan bails everyone out of their underwater positions in an attempt to bring back the bubble. we'll only know for sure in retrospect. considering valuation alone, without even looking at the chart, the risk/reward ratio is still definitely against longs, just as it was at $ 20+ billion market cap. when a parabolic move ends, eventually and inevitably a stock will give back at least half the gains of that move, sometimes all of them and more. there are gaps to fill acting as magnets at $ 25 and then in the high teens. my initial target since i shorted at around $ 65 was $ 29, which we reached these past few days just like clockwork and according to the script. i already had my pound of flesh, so i could have moved on. but then i took another look at the chart, and saw there was empty space below $ 29. i said $ 15 because i didn't want to be alarming. to be honest, if you look at a weekly chart, support is even lower, in the single digits. spytrdr.com seems unrealistic now, but so seemed the fall of YHOO from $ 120 billion market cap to $ 9 billion now. or ARBA from $ 40 billion market cap to $ 2.8 b., or INSP from $ 25 billion market cap ($ 34 million in annual revenues then) to $ 1 b., etc etc. such is the nature of parabolic rises, once they end, there are no bases acting as support until much much lower. granted, these stocks had plenty of time to collapse and yet they still stand relatively strong, which i think is amazing. but where some might see relative strength, i see an opportunity to short, that's all.