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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7001)3/14/2001 8:34:35 PM
From: BirdDog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Assuming they increase market share in the overall storage market, it does not follow that they meet expectations for 2001 EPS. NTAP may get a bigger slice of a smaller pie (smaller in 2001 only).

Error number one...
There is nobody out there figuring NTAP's market share of the overall storage market. All estimates are on NAS only. Even your own statement is hypocritical. ...a bigger slice of a smaller pie... You talk about the total storage market. Then you talk about a bigger slice of a smaller pie. The total storage market is magnitudes larger than the NAS market. We are talking about NTAP expanding into a smaller slice of a much bigger pie. But unless you paid attention to "the story" as you put it. You couldn't know this.

Right now, companies are not asking whether they should buy NTAP or EMC storage products. They are asking whether they should (or can) buy anything.
Error Number Two...
When companies must have a product to succeed. And they are much much more critical of their spending. They are much more motivated to go with the less expensive solution. NTAP can now provide a storage solution that costs the customer one fourth of what the competition (SAN) can provide including maintenance of the system. This is a definite advantage for NTAP. But then, you would have to pay attention to what you call "the story" to know this.

But, if the scenario I expect plays out, I'll be buying this stock very cheap sometime this year.

Error Number Three...
How can you know what the scenario is going to be when you don't pay any attention to what you call "the story"? You don't have the slightest idea what is going on with this company. All you pay attention to are P/E's, P/S's, and charts. You don't have the slightest idea what the scenario can be.

Error Number Four...
If you don't think this company is cheap now. You will never think it is cheap. The charts will keep going down. Earnings estimates will keep going down. And you will never think it is cheap. Lets not forget to include the decline in earnings estimates into the formula...keep that cutting earnings estimates by 50% every six months...by 2003, NTAP should be making 5 cents a share.

BirdDog



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7001)3/15/2001 9:08:03 AM
From: SecularBull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
That's not the definition of a "win-win". Simply not losing money does not constitute a win in my book, and if it does in your's, then perhaps the market is not a good place for you to play. May I suggest CDs or money markets?

~SB~



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7001)3/15/2001 10:27:02 AM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Mr. Snyder, Thanks for showing up, you are breath of fresh air. A word of warning though. Right now the direction of NTAP is more depended on Mr. Market stabilizing then anything. Going forward, your concerns need to be addressed. All of your concerns about the health of potential and current buyers are valid, but not proven. Until we hear from the company or others in the sector, investors could be looking at picture that is clouded and backward looking by how the market has sold off. There will come a time when the current mess doesn't matter and the market will start to look to a recovery that is certain to happen as the market psychology repairs itself. I content that we are more likely to be at the beginning of the repair process then looking for more doom.

Greg