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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (381)	3/14/2001 8:54:52 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95639

SD, Don, one thing that doesn't quite smell right to me is the following - if the semi-equips have bottomed in December '00 for this cycle, what has historically been the latest time by which evidence for a recovery should be seen? If memory serves me right, the semis bottomed 6 mos. earlier in the last downturn (or 2 quarters). I don't see a recovery in the next two months. I'd be happy to see one by October. I have kept a weekly history of the 31 semi-equips since April 97, nearly a four year period. A major bottom occurred on 10/8/98, and most recently, 11/30/00. As I pointed out in one of the last posts, it remains to be seen if the low on 11/30/00 holds up over the next several months, or does the group value reach a new low prior to making a new high. From October 98, the group trended upward until it reached a major peak in March 2000, almost twice the peak value set in 1997. One scenario that could happen is a series of group minimums and maximums over the next several months/years. A key question in my mind is - when will the semi-equip group peak exceed the group high set in March 2000? A possibility exists that several "mini" peaks and valleys could occur before this happens. Also, on this thread, over the past several months, tables of BtB "cycles" and other information has been posted. Gottfried has graphed all of this data which can be viewed. Right now, the bookings have been dropping like a rock causing a period of negative BtB values. New bookings and billing data will be available in a week, or so, for the month of February. It should be very interesting to see. P.S. Asyst hung on pretty well today. Yes, ASYT and the semi equip group did very well today overall. Compared to yesterday, ASYT was down 3 percent while the semi equip group was down 1 percent. The NASDAQ was down 2 percent while the DOW was down 3 percent. ASYT has been at such a low PE for so many months that it doesn't have far to retreat. Don