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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (1650)	3/14/2001 9:51:34 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

Macro economic issues you ask? Coming from such as strong economic base I hope a tax cut and decreasing interest rates will either help avoid a recession or make it a short mild one. If consumer spending is the key, I think with lowering interest rates and increasing credit it wont be long before the consumer is spending away. The wealth effect maybe a factor, but as long as people have two incomes coming into the house they will spend. Unemployment rates are very very low still. When we are approaching 5% then maybe spending will be more heavily impacted. The $64 question is as the tech bubble unwinds back to reality will consumers be to scared to spend heavily? How long before the overallocated capital can find its way back to undersupported areas like the nations infrastructure? The recent years have been spent developing web site managers and clean jobs working in technology. Who is going to man the rigs, build refineries, power plants, electric transmission lines, bridges etc? From the risk reward perspective I am close to coming to the conclusion that maybe 60-70% cash is not such a bad idea for a few months. Irrational extremes can be had in both directions and if we get an irrational selloff, maybe even OXY can sell for 2x earnings.