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To: AllansAlias who wrote (80741)	3/14/2001 11:52:00 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 436258

Trading Range Rules It just got a little carried away in the last few years.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (80741)	3/14/2001 11:53:19 PM
From: Sam Sara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

AMAT needs to crack. The longer it holds up, the worse it is for the bulls.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (80741)	3/14/2001 11:59:45 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 436258

Allan... wonderful You've got a great talent for making things easy to understand. Stockmarket Cycles update for Wednesday, March 14th. Our own personal health improved slightly today. Unfortunately, for the bullish contingent, the health of the market continued to deteriorate. In its present configuration, the market appears to be presenting a good news, bad news situation. The good news is that some of the Trading Index numbers are telling us the market could well be very close to an intermediate-term bottom, time-wise. The bad news is there are now significantly lower confirmed nominal 4 year projections. Today, in fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave a nominal 4 year downside projection to at least 8854. The lower side of that projection calls for 6551, so we can take the midpoint of those two numbers, 7702.50, and add a range of ± 1,151.5 points. If the projection is confirmed over the next few days, there is in excellent chance that projection range just given will be reached sooner rather than later. How does a projection get confirmed? The Dow would have to close below 9125 in order to confirm the nominal 4 year projection. The Trading Index numbers are now worthy of being followed very closely. We have always maintained that one of the great long-term buy signals in the stock market is a 10 day Trading Index higher than 1.50. Such a reading in the past has virtually guaranteed that the market would reach a major bottom within five to seven market days. It does not guarantee what price level the market will stop at. Such a signal has not been given as yet, but today's 10 day Trading Index was 1.45 according to the data we use from the Wall Street Journal. The Open 10 TRIN closed at 1.14, with the New 10 at 0.89. Today's McClellan oscillator went to a new low at -186.6. We believe things are about to get even more interesting for the bears. Mutual funds switchers- Rydex switchers are 100% in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select switchers are 100% in Select American Gold. All mutual fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and call each market evening. Stock index futures traders-place your stops on our June S&P short positions at 1216.60. On any move below the 1100.00 lower your stops to 1,173.60. The XAU has given a nominal 10 day projection down to 50.75 ± 2 points. We continue to watch this sector carefully because the projections for Fidelity Select American Gold could possibly have been met today when it closed at 12.05. There are no new projections for the bonds. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Also, Just studied the Comitment of Traders report posted two days ago. Here is the link: commitmentsoftraders.com Basically, if you look at the net commercial, they are short in record levels, which we all know; But... if you look at COT % indicator ( not sure if this a proprietory indicator in the site ), it at a 5 year record high. COT % indicator's high corresponds to the market bottom according to the site. The %COT indicator is a composite index of the net commercial position in the major futures markets. The index shows a net buying or selling by commercials in all the commodity markets listed in this web site and is calculated by simply adding up the column of the net commercial positions, but reverse the sign on the interest rates, the stock indexes, and the Dollar index. That way they are all a reflection of the net commercials anticipating higher or lower commodity prices. The premise on using the %COT as an indicator for the stock market index is that the history of the indicator suggest net commercials in the primary commodity futures markets anticipate rising commodity prices all the way into the peak in prices, and the stock market falls all the way into the peak net commercial anticipation of rising prices. Once the net commercial %COT turns down from a high point, the history of the indicator suggests we can then look for a low in the stock market. The %COT seems to rise and peak into a stock market bottom. It's rise is a coincident indicator of the bottom. The indicator seems to fall into and turn up at a stock market top. It's bottom is a coincident indicator with the top. George Slezak 1-888-311-3400 commitmentsoftraders.com futuresfax.com futuresdaytrades.com futuresfunds.com spdaytrading.com futurestradingschool.com