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To: American Spirit who wrote (49185)	3/15/2001 12:23:13 PM
From: moufassa7	Respond to of 57584

OT: March Madness has begun. Kentucky 2 Holy Cross 0.

To: American Spirit who wrote (49185)	3/15/2001 1:51:08 PM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

FYI to American Spirit re: VZ We have a VZ credit card which rebates money on purchases toward payment of our phone bills. We have heavy credit card bills, with two kids in college charging up tuition, food and fun every day, so....we are owed a large rebate every month. Through the rebate, we get our main home phone line for free. There is enough rebate money unused and leftover every month to also cover our second phone line and my cell phone, but we don't use the rebate money because it's more advantageous for me to continue, at least for a while, to keep the second phone line and cell phone separate from household expenses and write them off as business expenses, at least for the time being. Bottom line, VZ is willing to give us two phone lines and a cell phone for free as long as we charge enough on our VZ credit card. Does this sound like a marketing plan or a profitable business plan? I dunno, but it sounds like a giveaway to me, and not a real money-maker for VZ....also makes VZ look a little desperate. Therefore, any due diligence on this stock might need to include a comparison of how much money VZ is making on its credit card program vs. its cell and landline phone program. If a long-distance phone company has to get into the credit card biz to survive, this MIGHT not be a good sign. But what do I know?

To: American Spirit who wrote (49185)	3/15/2001 1:55:33 PM
From: HandsOn	Respond to of 57584

Margolies is down here in Boca, Him and Farrell are good value pickers. Shorting WCOM here is risky business.

To: American Spirit who wrote (49185)	3/15/2001 5:24:24 PM
From: maverick61	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

AS - some comments: 1. I think you are wrong - WCOM, Sprint and T still have numerous offers to switch to their LD. I get a new offer probably weekly. SO, the competition is out there. Sure, SBC and VZ, etc want to get into the business - but the people that run these companies have big egos - which is probably more of the reason they want to pursue adding LD than anything. Sure, they may be able to eek out a small profit on it - but its extremely competitive right now - so I don't see it as a big boost to their bottom line 2. I am not sure why you think VZ will be added to the DOW - but it ain't gonna happen. there is no real rational for this at all. If you are gonna invest in these - do it on more than false hopes. What solid evidence do you have that would support this assertion? 3. As I noted - between the 2, I would be a buyer of WCOM over VZ as I think you could get the better return in WCOM. 4. As far as GLW - you are mistaken at looking at p/e based on trailing 12 months. the market looks forward - you need to do the same. GLW has said they are comfortable with annual estimates of $1.65. IF they hit them - that means they are trading at a forward p/e of 14. Lets say they they have to revise downward by 25% - they still trade at a foward p/e of 19. Lets say worst case - they have to revise down by 50% - that is still a p/e going forward of just 28. I will take the risk that GLW, with their previously announced contracts performs much moreso than I would some of those you prefer. Specifically - you said why not LU and NT instead of GLW. Well, IMO LU sucks. plain and simple. They are in bad shape. They have a projected forward p/e of 42 - and I doubt they will hit that as they are forecasting losses for the next couple of quarters. They have old tech products - when much better alternatives exist. They are looking at selling their optical unit just to help the rest of the company survive. I wouldn't touch LU with a 10 foot pole. As to NT - it seems that they too have been mismanaged. I used to be a NT fan - no longer. Their mgmnt has made many bad missteps recently, and they too are losing out in the product race against newer generation products. I have no faith in any of the estimates NT has out for themselves right now - after they have blown it so bad the last 6 months. So, its another one I would not touch right now. 5. Wireless - I beg to differ on your outlook. You make anecdotal observations of teenagers yakking on cell phones. Hey, maybe where you live - but its not something prevalent. And you note, NOK just said things are ok - no, actually NOK said "Trims Q1 sales growth forecast to 20% from earlier estimate of 25-30%. Now sees FY01 mobile phone market size of 450-500 mln units. Despite slower than expected sales growth in Q1, NOK estimates that it is likely to meet EPS estimates for the qtr. Says economic uncertainty has increased during the last weeks, especially in the United States. Company currently forming an opinion on Q2 and the full yr in light of recent market developments. These views will be communicated along with Q1 results on April 20. ". In essence NOK is saying sales and demand is slowing - so we will miss top-line revenue - but still hit our bottom line in Q1 because of cost-cutting. As far as Q2 and out - they are gonna warn. Add this NOK news to that from ERICY, MOT, NXTL, etc - and their is no way you can be excited about wireless right now. So as far as that spin-off of VZ's wireless unit - or sale of it to VOD - all I have to say is look at this: bigcharts.com Think the people who bought AT&T's wireless operations are happy with it being cut in half? Wireless valuations are down - and will remain so for quite some time. So I don't see that as a big benefit for VZ 6. In summary, IMO you have to watch how you define value and what your catalysts for those values will be. Don't bet on a miraculous Wireless turnaround, unsubstantiated hopes that that something will be added to the DOW, or current p/e's instead of future outlooks. And don't bet on old, tired technologies - when newer companies have better products. If you are gonna buy into so-called vlaue stocks - and hold til they provide a nice return - make sure you pick the right beaten up companies, for the right reasons, with the right catalysts. Thats my opinion FWIW