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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43827)	3/15/2001 9:17:17 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

In 1996, I bought semi-equips from the beginning of June, through the bottom at the end of July. They didn't take off until the end of November. In 1998, I bought semis and semi-equips from January through October. An example: LRCX @ 23 in Jan, 21.5 in Jun, 20 in Jun, 18.13 in Jul, 16.5 in Jul, 15.31 in Oct (these prices are before the last 3-1 split).

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43827)	3/15/2001 9:38:14 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I assume you mean the market in general. It's nearly identical to 73-74. There have been periods of panic, but folks are damaged much more severely by this type of never ending grind. The reality is that there may not be enough sellers left in tech stocks to create what you might see as a panic. I said "may not be." It has been replaced by a steady erosion for about 9 months. If there is one final leg down as low as 1500, it will have to be driven by the public capitulating in a fashion that causes massive selling by funds as a result of redemptions. I think that is all that is left. I have some stats to support this view from two institutions I am associated with. If this occurs, no one will do well for years, even if they nail the bottom. There won't be enough demand left to drive prices up at any decent clip. A minor version of this could drop us to under 1800, driven by tax selling in the next 4 weeks. It won't be caused by capital gains, or panic, but by folks who need to raise cash because of exercised options last year, and have to pay real income tax on the options. I have based much of my direction as an investor on monetary policy. As much as anyone you would run into,I believe in the ability of the money supply to control economic direction. I can see we are falling off the cliff into an abyss, and yet, in my opinion, this is still correctable, and rather quickly(months). I just don't see Greenspan doing it, yet. So I go back and forth every day as to what will happen because this could turn on a dime with a huge pumping of supply but probably won't. When we look back on this I can assure you it will look like he was fighting inflation right through negative gdp numbers. Oh he lowered rates all right, but the adjusted monetary base is still negative year over year, and with the population increase, the numbers are even worse. stls.frb.org