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Strategies & Market Trends : Intraday Updates, Analysis & Strategies for Daytraders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (379)	3/15/2001 4:38:46 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 589

Everyone -- Be very careful if you're playing the B2B bounce after ORCL. I'm still trying to interpret the ORCL PR because it doesn't seem it can be right. ORCL announced that Applications sales increased only 25 percent. If that is correct, the analysts are going to jump all over ORCL tomorrow. In its warning, ORCL said Applications sales increased 50 percent. Prior to the warning, the Street was looking for 75 percent. It's hard to believe the number in the earnings announcement is right. Maybe it's not, or maybe it's not the correct number to make these comparisons. I don't know yet, but it raises a caution flag. <?????> ORCL's balance sheet shows the shareholder equity has declined by more than $1.1 billion this fiscal year, too. I'd have to go back and look at prior quarterlies to see why this is the case -- beyond a large paydown in back income taxes, which shows up directly in the balance sheet -- but it's certainly odd on the surface. The upside to ORCL's report is that it's raising efficiency dramatically, which is fattening margins and dropping more revenues through to the bottom line. The analysts should like that (although I'm not sure what consensus estimates are for ORCL's margins -- this success might already be priced in). Earnings Report: biz.yahoo.com Pre-Announcement: biz.yahoo.com

To: Jenna who wrote (379)	3/15/2001 4:59:50 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 589

<font color=green>Techno-Fundamental Analysis for big $$$ DPMI from 85, CMVT from 80 still short/puts.. we are closing in on our price target. Charts are fine and we love them but for accurate price targets beyond just the intraday scalps of 1-2 points and for the 'beefy' plays itthe techno-fundamental analysis. When there was a short fall on RIMM/HAND/PALM followed by INTU warning and ADBE it was not the TA that found these plays. INTU chart was perfect going into today, not overbought, new uptrend, but once it was established that earnings are questionable INTU went into freefall. Today's rally fizzled by the end of the first reversal period (10:12 to 10:25) and shorts proliferated from then on and that's all we played. This was all earnings related not TA related. We enter all plays based on Technical Analysis but by knowing THE COMPLETE PICTURE... can you get the beef of the trade. These last 6 months have proven that there are no bottoms, only detachable bottoms like limbo sticks. Earnings are still the foremost predicator for price moves, whether you are a day trader, or a swing/position trader. If you want the BIG gains and we have been saying that for 5 years, for the DAYTRADE, SWING and POSITION TRADE the charts should be screened first for FUNDAMENTAL STRENGTH and the results filtered out and run through TECHNICAL ANALYSIS scans. Otherwise you will be scrambling into stocks until the first reversal which is fine for 3/4 point but when you do that 5 or 6 times a day its tiresome and still won't net the "BIG FISH".