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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (19675)	3/16/2001 7:59:37 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Art, I haven't thrown the towel in yet. You said... "It now looks as though SanDisk bargained away its proprietary technology through cross licensing agreements with so many other manufacturers that nothing is left in the way of valuable patents ..." First, the '987 defense with Lexar just ended in November of 2000, so I don't think the CompactFlash IP is out for the count just yet. I still argue that SanDisk is negotiating with card assemblers for combined licenses for CF and MMC, since most assemblers produce both. Second, MMC is a combined Siemens/SanDisk invention and Siemens only has licensing rights for the ROM version. We are just seeing some new MMC manufacturers this past quarter. Previously only Hitachi (to my knowledge) was making MMC in any significant volume. Third, SDMC has proprietary features with the shared owners being Matsushita, Toshiba and SanDisk. Fourth, we don't know the value of SanDisk's MLC patents just yet. Recall that they made significant technology purchases in 1999 and that MLC is still in its infancy as Eli outlined at the shareholders' meeting last year. I agree with you on two points. 1) SmartMedia and Memory Stick have defended their turf quit successfully. 2) I don't see how SanDisk will differentiate their embedded flash products from the remainder of the field. Our biggest dilemma now is... ...nobody is willing purchase an "expensive" flash memory card when that purchase is predicated on the purchase of a $400+ digital camera, a $400+ handheld PC, a $200+ MP3 player or an advanced handset with a steep monthly subscription fee for services that don't exist quite yet. I still see massive volume sales being a year or two away for most of SanDisk's card form factors, but believe the potential exists. If SanDisk can make it through this down cycle relatively unscathed I think there is a definite possibility that several competitors will drop out of the competition at a time when SanDisk will be able to produce a low cost, high volume product for the mass markets. Can you imagine a 128 MB CF or MMC in the next year or so selling profitably for under $100 a piece? I honestly believe this is a distinct possibility. I was also encouraged by this statement... "A Matsushita spokeswoman said her company is targeting 220 billion yen ($1.80 billion) in sales next year from SD memory cards and compatible devices, including cell phones." Aus