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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7141)3/16/2001 12:19:20 AM
From: tripperd2  Respond to of 10934
 
Jacob, I am not sure what you mean by the cheerleading to be honest. Are you sure you aren't confusing us with the Coming Into Buying Range thread? Sure we like this company and believe in the tech, but there are none of the vicious attacks or defenses that we see elsewhere. Keep giving us your insight, but remember that all of our perspectives and goals are different. Greg M. is one of my favorite SI posters but I have no desire or any chance to emulate his trading. As an Investor I wasn't unhappy to see it drop below 20 today as my timeframe is very long and I was able to buy more shares with my monthly allotment.
Heck I believe that there is a good chance that NTAP will warn, god forbid the analysts may be right, and we may get hit some more, but it still doesn't change my longterm outlook.

Regards, Trip



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7141)3/16/2001 1:29:00 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
 
But it's so ludicrous. The stock has gone from 152 to 18, and they are still acting like a team of cheerleaders, shouting over and over, "GO, NTAP, GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Jacob,

The rational long-term investor will know why he or she owns a particular security, and sell only if the underlying story changes. He or she will not sell simply because the stock price (i.e. the market's perception of the story) falls. You've heard the old saw about CSCO dropping 40% several times in 1990's. While NTAP has fallen more than 40%, NTAP's 80% decline in today's market is probably comparable in shock value to a 40% decline back then. Clearly, the lesson isn't to take a huge decline as a sign of strength. The lesson is: it isn't necessarily a sign of weakness either. It could be a sign of weak hands folding, as it apparently was with CSCO.

As for the question of whether the underlying business has changed drastically for the worse:

You & others have pointed out that we may be in the midst of a serious slowdown, and that NTAP's customers won't be immune to it, which will necessarily affect NTAP. While others have pointed out that NTAP's low-cost solution may in fact gain share during a slow-down, the more important issue is this: I expect NTAP's cash flow ten years from now to dwarf those in the next few years. As such, I place relatively little weight in the happenings over the next few years, except insofar as they affect NTAP's long-term prospects. In other words, I'd view a reduction in share to be a potentially serious long-term problem, but a reduction in cash flow without a reduction in share to be no big deal.