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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (81273)	3/15/2001 11:41:42 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, you may know the answer to this question. Should we be more scared of the "mad cow disease" or this "wise cow disease" ? :-) dailynews.yahoo.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (81273)	3/15/2001 11:55:26 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Margin debt, Jan. 31st, still whopping $197B: markets.ft.com Margin debt plunges by 29% over past year By Alison Beard in New York Published: March 15 2001 00:05GMT \| Last Updated: March 15 2001 00:08GMT A year ago the amount of money investors had borrowed to buy shares stood at a record $278bn. Since then, they have cut their margin debt by 29 per cent - the sharpest decline in New York Stock Exchange history. "It's fallen off a cliff," said Cary Leahey, senior economist at Deutsche Bank. "It's a combination of the weak market, market calls, the diminution of day trading and a pulling in of horns by investors." Debit balances, or debt, in margin accounts at NYSE member firms totalled $197bn as of January 31. That is still high by historic standards; margin debt broke $100bn for the first time in 1997. But in the last four months alone, investors have reduced their borrowing by 20 per cent, the longest decline since 1994. "It's a prima facie indication of [the level of] confidence in the stock market," said Clark Yingst, an equity market analyst on Prudential Securities' capital markets desk. "Clients that were meeting calls are no longer doing so." When investors buy stocks on margin they typically put up 50 per cent of the purchase price and borrow the rest from a broker. If the stock soars, the investor takes all the profit, repaying the initial loan with 7 to 10 per cent interest. If the stock falls sharply, the broker issues a margin call. The investor must beef up his share of the account to at least 25 per cent of the new value of the investment by making a new deposit or selling the stocks at a loss. Margin trading soared in the late 1990s - "a combination of the market being strong . . . and technologicial change that allowed investors to trade actively without a broker," Mr Leahey said. Some investors made a great deal of money, but postings to a SiliconInvestor.com message group highlight the risks. One contributor claimed he had had only $2,000 of his own money in a margin account and had faced a $14,000 call when he saw all of his holdings drop. High-net-worth investors and hedge funds with larger positions fared even worse. Margin debt plunged in March last year along with the Nasdaq, mainly owing to margin calls. But investors did not lose their confidence and actually increased their borrowing in August and September, even as the stock market continued to decline. "The levels [of debt] were even higher as a percentage of Nasdaq market cap," said Mr Yingst. "It was even more of a burden than it had been in the spring, and that was a real concern to us." Investor behaviour may have been driven by history, Mr Yingst said. When the market declined in the financial crises of 1997 and 1998, it had quickly bounced back. "Looking back at those periods, many of the investors wished that they had met those margin calls," Mr Yingst said. "They felt they had made a mistake in liquidating those accounts . . . And that's one reason why the margin debt was slower to unwind in the tech decline." Now it seems investors are pulling back. Mr Yingst said that he knew of clients who had received margin calls this week and declined to pay them, taking a loss on the stock. Paul Graham, senior vice president at Fidelity Investments' online brokerage, also said customers were shifting away from borrowing. "We don't have a large magnitude in a great deal of trouble [because] they're easing themselves out of the margin . . . before they get into a slide," he said. "Our new account activity is still strong," he added. "They're still opening them, they're just not buying on margin. They're paying for their stocks." BC

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (81273)	3/16/2001 12:36:38 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 436258

Hyundai Corporation to Mine for Gold in Mali, West Africa "Hyundai reported that it had discovered gold in Mali, news which immediately boosted the value of its shares on the Korean Stock Exchange." asia.biz.yahoo.com Heinz (or anyone), what do you think of metals for the next year? and I don't mean just gold. I know the bull arguments, but I'm getting a bit concerned about the demand picture. Mining is due for an upswing, but global recession could throw the cycle off. If things get really bad (as we expect) gold could go up while industrial metals move down. Which way would platinum and palladium go in that case? Anyway it's encouraging that a major multinational is going into gold and being rewarded for it by the market. Also, mining sector charts still look fine. Fun-da-Mental