To: Zoltan! who wrote (132157 ) 3/16/2001 9:56:27 AM From: Tunica Albuginea Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769667 WallSt. Jour: Robert Rubin Hoover Review & Outlook March 14, 2001 Robert Hoover ============== A debate over tax cuts can do strange things to politicians. Consider how antipathy for President Bush's tax cut is turning Democrats into Herbert Hoover Republicans. Once upon a time Democrats championed tangible things like jobs and good wages for the little guy. "Debt," especially government debt, was one of those economic abstractions that preoccupied Republicans and other accountants. But so desperate are they to defeat Mr. Bush that, despite a sinking stock market and a flat economy, Democrats are now elevating debt reduction to be America's foremost economic goal. Here's how former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin put it late last month on PBS's "NewsHour with Jim Lehrer": "At the present time it seems to me that which is best for the American people is to pay down the debt, because, remember, the debt is also the debt of the American people." Pay down the debt! So popular is this mantra among today's Democrats that it is the first Senate hearing subject insisted upon by ranking Budget Committee Democrat Kent Conrad. We hear Mr. Conrad is begging Mr. Rubin to testify, the better to lure the TV networks. The other Democratic star witness is likely to be Gary Gensler, former debt management guru under Bill Clinton. Now, the cheap polemics here would be to point out that it's easy to be a debt scold if you graduated with highest honors from Goldman Sachs. But instead we'd like to offer Mr. Rubin some friendly advice: Don't testify. You left Treasury as the guru of prosperity. Don't risk that legacy by transforming yourself into the moral equivalent of a FASB fanatic. At the very least, Mr. Rubin needs to go to school on the facts of U.S. debt. Fact one is that the amount of publicly held debt is already falling fast, to about $3.2 trillion by the end of this year. That's about 34% of GDP, down from more than 50% only a few years ago and about the average among industrial nations. Every Social Security tax dollar not spent on current benefits will "pay down" this debt even further, even under the Bush tax plan. Fact two is that only about $2 trillion of this is going to come due between now and 2011. Most of the rest can be retired only if the U.S. government is willing to offer a premium to repay bondholders prematurely. This is in essence what the Rubin-Gensler Democrats are advocating: Keep American taxes higher than they need to be now, ==================================================== to repay bondholders, 37% of whom are foreigners, =============================================== at a bonus rate. ===================== Of those foreigners, 27% are Japanese, ========================================= including some very large banks. ================================ Investors from Communist China and OPEC nations hold another 4% each. No doubt these folks will appreciate the subsidy that Mr. Rubin wants middle-class Americans to pay them to give up their T-bonds early. Arigato, Rubin-san! Another 5% of U.S. Treasuries are held as savings bonds, so perhaps Mr. Rubin wants to prematurely recall all of those held by America's 10-year-olds. Grandma may have bought the 5% bond to teach Joey the value of thrift, but Uncle Sam will now cancel that lesson by paying Joey, say, 7% because of Mr. Rubin's obsession. Of course the last "debt" refuge of the Rubin-Conrad-Hoover Democrats is to drag in Social Security. We can't "afford" a tax cut today, they insist, because we need to build up assets to pay Social Security benefits in 2030. But where does Mr. Rubin want to put those assets? In a mattress? As Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has noted, it is dangerous for the government to build up a surplus because the political temptation will be great to start buying up huge chunks of the private economy. Mr. Rubin opposes private Social Security accounts, so the only alternative under his strategy would be for the government to gobble up private industry. Perhaps this is indeed what the Democratic Party wishes to do. It may be of course that these facts don't matter, because Democrats in Congress aren't arguing in good faith. They're just obsessing over debt reduction because they know it is the best line of political attack to stop a tax cut. But the Robert Rubin who was Treasury Secretary was better than that. Now he's being brought back as a cog in someone else's political offensive. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URL for this Article:interactive.wsj.com