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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (33742)	3/16/2001 10:13:20 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Goldman Sachs' Cohen says worst is upon us By Jim Loney <<MIAMI, March 15 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs stock market guru Abby Joseph Cohen, one of the bulls who drove the record U.S. stock market surge during the last decade, said on Thursday that the S&P 500 is undervalued and technology and telecoms should be overweighted in investors' portfolios. A week after telling clients to buy more stocks, Cohen said the U.S. economy is strong and reiterated her belief that the S&P, which closed on Thursday at 1,174, will hit 1,650 by year-end. She said the Dow Jones Industrial Average, now at 10,031, will likely reach 13,000 by the end of 2001. Goldman Sachs does not forecast the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index. "We believe the worst economic news is most likely happening right now," she told a group of about 400 business executives at a dinner sponsored by the Miami Bond Club and Miami Society of Financial Analysts. "Today the S&P 500, while it was overvalued a year ago, is now undervalued," she said. On March 7, Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, raised the equity allocation in the bank's model portfolio to 70 percent from 65 percent and reduced the cash position from 5 percent to zero. The fixed income component was left at 27 percent with a 3 percent allocation to commodities. Cohen, who is often identified with the long U.S. bull market of the 1990s, painted a brighter picture for U.S. stocks over the next 9-12 months. "We are in the midst of the most structurally sound economy that the United States has ever seen and most likely the most structurally sound economy the world has ever seen," she said. The current slump was caused in part by rising energy prices, miserable winter weather that kept consumers at home and out of shopping malls, and the "CNN effect" of the protracted presidential election, when buyers were glued to their television sets. "During a newsworthy event people stay at home and consumption declines," she said, citing trends seen during the Persian Gulf War and the O.J. Simpson trial. Cohen called the U.S. downturn a "cyclical weakness." She said disparities in relative price/earnings ratios have been reduced and future problems have been priced into technology and telecoms stocks. "We have now returned to an overweight in tech and telecoms," she said. The Goldman Sachs model portfolio currently has a 32 percent weight in the two sectors -- 27 percent in technology and 5 percent in telecoms. Corporate profits are likely to return to close to trend growth rates later this year, she said, estimating sustainable S&P profit growth of 7-8 percent in the second half of 2001 and gross domestic product growth of around 2.5-3 percent for the same period. Cohen said Goldman Sachs analysts were more worried about the global economy than the U.S. economy, citing Japan as the most obvious concern. She said there was no sign that capital was flowing out of the United States to other markets. "Many other nations are facing structural difficulties that they have not yet figured out how to handle," she said.>>

To: SecularBull who wrote (33742)	3/16/2001 11:55:07 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

sb...ntap looking better value every day...unlike many that are dreamed about, it does make money, is in a good sector, and may be looking at a near term bottom....if it remains sound fundamentally, probability good long term investment.....as i mentioned to jill, take the year 2000 parabola out, and it still can achieve a long term gains better then money market.... reality that some will never grasp is that a company must make money, regardless of how the stock price is perceived i bought some oracle the other day at 16...never liked ellison, but gained respect for him yesterday when he talked about growing profits not necessarily top line....too many "thirty something" analysts don't grasp the rationale that profits are more important then sales...i would buy a company if it halved its sales and double its profits, better cash flow and lower overhead required with lower revenues... rough market...i keep on watching my portfolio test the maginot line and hold....either the attack is weakening or the line support is strengthening...