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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (88717)3/16/2001 6:18:54 PM
From: Roebear  Respond to of 95453
 
JimL,
Agree with most of your points with the added point that non member states have an added incentive to cheat in a recessionary world.
OPEC appears it may be more resolute than in the past, but 1and 3 are possibilities that must be watched for and it doesn't matter, short term, if they happen or not. The market will be watching and expecting it to and will have to be proved wrong by OPEC actions. Much like the myth of the phantom barrels, this will probably create a buying opportunity this spring, but the timing will be a bi*ch! I lean to the last rise in the OSX being a wedge and today's action broke it decisively, not good. XOI I've had no time to look at yet.

I've been working 14 hour days lately so time has not permitted me to keep up on my posts. I'm back to 85% cash, (partly because of the market and partly lack of time to follow the tape) only TESOF remains and a trifle of AEM (I just can't hold anything long term in this market!), most of these moves actually completed yesterday and the golds a day before. AEM held nicely today and will again be my prime pick for reloading the golds when the time comes. TESOF has been holding very well also, but I am prepared to average down on these two if the market gets downright ugly and they cannot resist the vacum, again, when the time comes (and the tape speaks,ggg).

I don't know the when , hence the large cash position as opposed to last weeks large gold stock position, where I was confident to the point fo using margin. I have arranged to have most of next week off to watch the market drama unfold and to utilize some cash, but I will be very cautious and may not use much, there are a lot of answers I need to find before being heavily committed again.

I wouldn't be surprised if Monday is more ugly than sin, but that is a possibility, not a prediction.

Best Regards,

Roebear