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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: straight life who wrote (8665)	3/16/2001 12:18:43 PM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 196545

CDG Digevent Web Cast starting 12 Eastern now running cdg.org

To: straight life who wrote (8665)	3/16/2001 12:55:31 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196545

SL, << Taking into account the rash of TDMA to GSM conversions, TDMA subscriber growth is about to hit a wall, especially when AWE switches over. >> I agree. I don't think we will see much affect from this in the current calendar year however. We will start to see this more next year and even more in 2003. When my buddy Tero was hyping his "TDMA trend theory" (before the AWS decision to base technology on GSM, and before availability of GSM-800 infra and handsets was announced) I projected that the trend would reverse 2nd or 3rd quarter this year. I was then, however, assuming that Korean subsidy bans would be lifted (they don't look like they are going to be) and didn't count on a slow down in US handset sales. This year, Latin America (TDMA v. CDMA) will continue to tell the story, as it did last year. Korea is reasonably saturated and so is Japan (as compared to the US, and particularly LA). Koreans replace their handsets on a much faster cycle than "Americans" (when subsidies in effect) and so do the Japanese. Replacements don't kick into sub adds however. I am hoping that by the end of this year that CDMA can once again become "the fastest growing technology on a YOY basis. If not, next year should do it with Unicom kicking in, some India stuff, etc., at the same time that TDMA subs start moving to GSM In NA & LA. Meantime the UWCC has its press release out on year ending figures. Please note that their "official" figures are lower than what EMC published for them (64.3 million). Please also note: When breaking up the world by regions, EMC (official statistician for GSMA) generally places Mexico in Latin America. CDG does the same thing. Below, Latin America does not include Mexico, which is included in North America. CDG has yet to report. EMC's number of 81.9 million can only be taken as "unofficial" ... and through 3rd quarter they were estimating CDMA sub numbers slightly higher than the official numbers from CDG. At the beginning of last year UWCC projected 59 million TDMA subs end of 2000 (they under forecasted by 2 million) and end of 2001 subs of 89 million. No revised forecast has been posted but if they achieve 89 million by year end their 2001 growth rate will be 46%. >> TDMA Subscribers Increase By 74% Worldwide: TDMA Penetration Continues To Grow Rapidly with 61 Million Subscribers UWCC Press Release March 7, 2001 Bellevue, WA One of the leading international wireless associations, the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC), announced today that TDMA subscribers increased by 74% worldwide, reaching 61 million by the end of 2000. "TDMA continues to be the most widely used wireless technology in the Americas-- with the greatest number of subscribers, operators, and geographic coverage area," commented Chris Pearson, Executive Vice President for the UWCC. By the end of 4th Quarter 2000, TDMA operators in North America (which includes the United States, Mexico, and Canada) served about 31 million TDMA subscribers, representing a growth of 59% over the last year. The growth of TDMA in the Latin American region continues at a faster pace reaching over 28 million and maintaining its commanding lead over the other wireless technologies in that region of the world. Pearson said,"With TDMA subscribers in Latin America increasing by more than 100% in the past year, TDMA is clearly the first choice for wireless communications." He continued, "These growth rates position the TDMA technology platform for favorable economies of scale. TDMA operators also have the advantage of multiple options for delivering Third Generation high speed wireless data services to their customers." << - Eric -