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Technology Stocks : ADI: The SHARCs are circling! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Oravetz who wrote (2688)	3/16/2001 12:11:37 PM
From: Jim Oravetz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2882

Slow Cellular handset sales pulling in reins on DSP market growth By Will Wade EETimes print 3/12/01 Though the semiconductor industry seems to be in a slowdown this year, the DSP segment may not be hit as hard as the rest of the market, according to a new report. However, the overall economic shift will make a hit on DSPs, as consumers seem to be purchasing fewer wireless telephones, the single largest DSP destination application. Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts is predicting that the DSP industry will see revenue growth of 10 this year, to $6.76B. Strauss expects a rebound next year, as the market grows 35 % to reach $9.12B. Overall, he is predicting a cumulative annual growth rate of 26.7% through 2005, when the DSP segment could see total sales of $20B. Wireless is a big part of that picture. “Half of all handset sales last year were replacement units, and now that the market is slowing down, people are not throwing their old ones away,” said Strauss. The growth rate for new subscribers, however, has not changed. (Somewhere I read that about 60K people a day are signing up for new cell phone service). Whiter 3G? A second factor to consider in the handset market is the long awaited deployment of the so called 3G cell phone. While there is no clear definition of what third generation telephone is, most observers expect it to include both voice and data services, and to demand higher bandwidth than today’s services. Deploying this type of capability will take advanced handsets, more robust basestations – and MORE DSPs. While Strauss said the bulk of those systems are not quite ready for wide scale use, several carriers are aggressively moving forward with 3G services, including Japanese providers, who hope to launch 3G network in May. Much of these advance networks will be based on the wideband code division multiple-access format. “The fact is, W-CDMA is going on now, “ said Strauss. However, with only limited availability, there are few, if any, 3G handsets available, a fact that is also limiting replacement sales. As usual, DSP giant Texas Inst. Secured the top spot in Forward Concepts’ market share ranking, with 44% of the total market in 2000. Despite posting total sales growth of 29% last year, however, TI’s share declined from 47.9% in 1999. Lucent, who spun off the chip division to from the independent company Agere Systems, took the No. 2 spot with 22.8%. Motorola was third with 13.2 %. Overall, the DSP segment saw sales growth of 40% last year vs. 1999. Beyond wireless, other hot markets for DSP include digital audio, Bluetooth, digital subscriber line (DSL) technology, and Global Positioning systems (GPS). +++++ Good summary article on the future projections. I take objection to the phrase, "While there is no clear definition of what third generation telephone is", there is clear definition! So called 2G or 2.5G technology phones are around today - WAP phones, GPRS technology (enhanced GSM phones) increased the DATA rates. 3G will be even higher. One other area that DSP is growing in, IMHO, is motor control. Lots and lots of mundane applications use a motor. DSPs can make them more energy efficient to run, without much increase in overall cost to the unit (i.e. washer, refrig. etc.) Somewhere on this tread, ADI stated that they will be shipping 1M units of DSP for motor control. Other DSP vendors are also active in this area. Jim