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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (40480)	3/16/2001 2:04:58 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 54805

Dear UF, Reflections on capitulation. Siebel says that we are far from the bottom. I think nobody knows and he has little to go on other than the trend in his order book. But why did his own stock go up 2+ % after his pronouncement? If Siebel is right than we certainly should capitulate. But he is making a prediction in a field where the wisest, i.e. Warren Buffett won't predict. I think the most important question to ask is are our companies in some kind of big trouble, not the stock price? If so we should sell. It's not a gorilla if it gets into big trouble. The comparative advantage should protect it. I have no recommendations for anybody, any more. But I myself am busy selling calls, risking some opportunity cost, and holding on. By the way Siebel says the bottom will be reached when NOBODY wants to buy any tech stocks. I'm not in touch enough to know whether we are at that situation now. I guess, Uncle it boils down to whether you think Siebel is wiser in this department than you are. My real nightmare is selling everything one day and the next day there is some unexpected good news and the shorts go crazy trying to cover as soon as possible. As we know upward movements of 20% for our stocks in one day are not unknown. That the news should continue bad forever is unbelievable for me. If anybody really knows which way the market is going, selling now and buying back later would be profitable. But I don't see the proofs there. We're all agreed that there is such a thing as a stupidly high price for even a gorilla. But everyone of them looks positively cheap now, to silly me, anyway.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (40480)	3/16/2001 2:08:19 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Will someone please give me 10 reasons why capitulation is a lousy idea? 1. I am on margin and already getting closer to margin calls. 2. you dont want to be selfish just because you are not close to margin calls. 3. you favorite companies may lay off Ph.d's who may have to pump gas (remember 1971 in California?) for a living. 4. It might feed on itself and take 7 years to recover. 5. Internet and wireless may take many more years before being widely used. 6. your favorite companies may go out of business. 7. you may finally get close to or actually get margin calls. 8. may take a generation for Consumer confidence to return. 9. people in the cold areas may actually freeze their a^%^& off due to no income and high gas prices. and finally the worst of all 10. people may have to go back to watching Jay Leno and the other guy (been so long i forgot his name) for entertainment.