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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1772)	3/16/2001 2:48:52 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 23153

Jim The Q's are recent but the NASDAQ 100, which the Q's track on a 40:1 basis, goes back a lot further. The mania goes back further than 1999....geez, why do you say that?<ggg> quote.yahoo.com^NDX&d=my John

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1772)	3/16/2001 2:55:12 PM
From: stsimon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

One of the fundamental problems with tech is that the spending boom has been fueled in recent years by the expansion of the Internet. Unfortunately, in the U.S. no one pays the real cost of this. I pay the same $20 per month that I have paid for years. I use it to gather information. I don't buy anything from companies that clutter the space with ads. I doubt my 20 bucks covers the real cost of my several hours a day usage. Hard to be bullish on Cisco, other than as a trade, until this problem resolves itself. The thing I like about the oil patch is that consumers pay for energy in a relatively direct proportion to their usage.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1772)	3/16/2001 3:15:18 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Oh I agree, I just couldn't find a better chart right off. If you allow for 15% growth, a pretty good rate, from the time that the NASDAQ was about 150, you get about 1200 as a reasonable level for it. This fits pretty well with your estimate. If you allow 10% growth for the Dow from when it was about 1000, you get aabout 6000, which again seems reasonable to me. Four years ago I would have said 4000, but there's been a lot of value added since then, and some inflation--not much. But in a real bear washout, as we all know, those levels might not hold. I would start buying discounted closed-end mutual funds at those levels, however, if I live to the time we get there!