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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (1807)	3/16/2001 6:39:04 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

ARM's Index 10-day moving average This is an explanation of this indicator from Don Hays web site. I recognize that I am bordering the limits when it comes to the distribution of subscriber-based copyrighted material, but since this text is essentially a definition of a non-proprietary technical indicator, I hope the people at Mr. Hays newsletter will not have a problem with it. "In my opinion, this is one of the best technical indicators of any that has ever been developed to gauge when conditions are right to produce a significant buying juncture. It is calculated by taking the quotient of the number of stocks advancing divided by the number declining, and then dividing that by the quotient of the volume being traded in those stocks advancing by the volume of the declining stocks. From a practical stance, this is simply a way to measure the energy required to produce the up and down moves. If it takes too much energy to produce an up move, the 10-day moving average of the Arms index would move very low, with a signal under 0.70 being considered very negative for the next 90 days market action. But more significantly, and more reliable is the action on serious market declines. Almost all serious market declines will produce a level of 1.30 or higher. On the very rare times this indicator moves above 1.50, it is an extremely strong sign that has always produced a significant major buying juncture within the following two weeks. This indicator during the entire last week has been treading water at the relatively high 1.2-1.25 level. This shows panic selling, but not to the same degree as on that 12/20/00 decline that pushed our asset allocation model into positive territory." As of yesterdays close, this indicator brimmed at 1.445. With todays action, its probably over 1.5. Per the chart provided, this indicator has only breached 1.5 once in the past 10 years, that being in Q4-1997. The 1.3 level has evidently only been breached about 8 times in the past 10 years. Warp