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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bobby beara who wrote (72380)3/16/2001 7:47:17 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
BB, would add that you may be correct, but the volatility index is also high which indicates to fear as people are willing to pay much more for an put option. So the analysis must be taken in this respect.

Low P/C ratio at tops were happening at low volatility values - e.g. people felt that they will do better just buying the stock.

My theory on this is that many already sold and they buy calls not to miss the upside and those still long are teriffied and buy protection.

The dam of fear keeps substantial amounts in money markets and a crack in this mentality can flush the stock market very quickly.

My sense is tha the just in time inventory cycle will move as fast up as it moved down.

Waiting for the trigger. Contrary to what they wrote abotu me in the WSJ I am waiting to go more long.

Bought VSH today at $18

Also it seems that the FED is quite restrictive that is why stocks are falling. No real monetary growth since February. Compare that with December January 1999/2000

stls.frb.org

BWDIK
Haim



To: bobby beara who wrote (72380)3/16/2001 8:21:35 PM
From: KymarFye  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99985
 
"motley fools on NBR"

Have always, not to put too fine a point on it, hated those guys... What did they have to say for themselves? Saw their special in the listings - wondered when it was produced - GREAT timing regardless.



To: bobby beara who wrote (72380)3/16/2001 9:58:16 PM
From: Casaubon  Respond to of 99985
 
I had never seen the fools before. Now I know...I'm not missing anything.



To: bobby beara who wrote (72380)3/16/2001 10:18:09 PM
From: Saulamanca  Respond to of 99985
 
Fool on man, fool on. Those 2 knitwits don`t need profits from the market to survive. I`m sure they`ve made their nut from their books and their website.

3/15/01: The Motley Fools On The Recent Stock Shock

PAUL KANGAS: Joining me now with their unique take on the stock, Tom and Dave Gardner, The Motley Fools themselves are with us and welcome to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Dave and Tom.

TOM GARDNER, CO-FOUNDER, THE MOTLEY FOOL: Great to be here Paul. Thank you.

KANGAS: It's great to see you. As a matter of fact, let me start with you Dave. In this bearish market environment, what strategy are the Motley Fools taking with regard to your subscribers? What are you telling them about the bear market ?

DAVID GARNDER, CO-FOUNDER, THE MOTLEY FOOL: Our first bit of advice Paul, is you know, get out there and enjoy the spring. I mean stop refreshing the web browser and checking your quotes every five minutes and we never try to time the market Paul. We really don't know where the market's headed in the short term. We don't know where the next 500 points on the NASDAQ are but we know where the next 2000 are. They'll be up in time and for that reason, that's the way we invest long term.

KANGAS: But it's kind of hard for you guys to talk about bear market strategy. You started your operation, Motley Fool, back in '93 and '94. You've never seen a protracted bear market have you?

DAVID GARDNER: Well, as investors, Tom and I have been investing for 20 years or so, so our dad got us started very early. I remember standing in the Safeway and watching 20, what was it, 28 percent or so in one day in 1987.

KANGAS: 22 1/2.

DAVID GARDNER: 22 1/2. So we've seen that. We've lived through that and we watched our dad live through it growing up.

KANGAS: OK, all right, it's fair enough. Tom what would tell you that the stock market has made a major bottom?

TOM GARDNER: Well, I think when you start to see companies beat their earnings estimates. We've obviously seen a lot of earnings warnings coming out and now when you see a company warn and the stock go up, or when you see companies start to outperform those estimates, then you start seeing a turn, but I really think what we need in the U.S. is, we can point our fingers at the Fed. We can point our fingers at tax law, but really what it comes down to is we need to stop overspending our means as consumers and start building savings account and investment account. You're going to see a less volatile market if that happens.

KANGAS: Is Greenspan a hero or a heel at this point?

TOM GARDNER: Are you saying heelro (ph) row then? I mean merging the two?

DAVID GARDNER: I'm saying hero overall because I think you have to take it all and all.

KANGAS: How about specific recommendations? Are you actually telling your subscribers to buy certain stocks and would you share that with us?

DAVID GARDNER: Sure. I mean you can see exactly how Tom and I are investing because we put our own real money right up on our Web site at fool.com. but my stocks are the same as they were a year ago. EBay (EBAY), Starbucks (SBUX), Amgen (AMGN), AOL Time Warner (AOL), Celera Genomics (CRA), Human Genome Sciences (HGSI).

KANGAS: OK.

DAVID GARDNER: These are all, you know, forward looking companies. I call them rule breakers.

KANGAS: So you consider them already at good bargain levels, the stocks you mentioned?

DAVID GARDNER: You know, I don't necessarily look for bargains, Paul. I mean I think that Warren Buffet always said he doesn't think he ever bought Coca Cola (KO) on the cheap, he just bought a good growth company over time. That's what I hope to do.

KANGAS: So you fellows are long-term type investors?

DAVID GARDNER: You're cotton picking right.

TOM GARDNER: Yes. And let me say this, Paul, since I run a separate portfolio. I am increasingly telling people about the Index Fund and to remind people that you can get the market's average return. Right now my portfolio is under performing the market because I've got Yahoo! (YHOO), Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) as my foundation-

KANGAS: All in the ETF, exchange traded fund.

TOM GARDNER: Well, I really think the Total Market Index Fund is a wonderful alternative for any individual investor who doesn't want to spend a lot of time.

KANGAS: Excellent. Gentlemen, thanks very much for joining us.

TOM GARDNER: Paul, thanks. We grew up watching this show with our dad, so it's great to be here.

KANGAS: Tom Gardner and David Gardner, The Motley Fools, thank you very much.

TOM GARDNER: Hold on.
<<---should be fool on

DAVID GARDNER: Hold on. <---should be fool on

nbr.com

All fools will be destroyed