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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (72441)	3/17/2001 8:38:19 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, in you last paragraph, I presume you meant to say "82 was not the unwinding of the great bull of bulls, but in a way it was. That was the era of increasing corporate efficiency by "conglomeration" and the nifty fifties, and like the Japanese Bull of Bulls (ending 89) it took from 1966 to 1982 to unwind. The Dow did not show it because failing companies were always taken out (like Anaconda, Chrysler and I do not remember the others, and growth companies like 3M and MTK added), yet for those 16 years, the "Fool"s notion of "2000 points" (in this case 500) was wrong. I wonder if someone knows how to reconstruct the Dow with its original 1950 components (and zero for those that are dead). That notion that "stocks" return an average of 7% over the "long run" may not hold that well. There use to be an investing maxim that stocks ought to have higher yields than bonds, since they are more risky, will that notion return? Zeev

To: KymarFye who wrote (72441)	3/17/2001 1:10:44 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

KF:i myself see it this way,when the final bottom arrives,be it like a feather landing after a slow downbreeze/upbreeze drifting to true bottom,or a stop the presses worldwide headlines apocalyptic moment,in it's wake will be left a generation scarred for life,just like the generation of the 1920s. i believe we saw a Generational High in 2000,whether the Generational Low arrives before the end of 2001,i am not sure,but i am sure it has not arrived yet.max