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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (49295)	3/17/2001 9:42:48 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57584

DO, I think we are basically saying the same thing. You are saying there is nowhere to hide until mid-April after earnings are out. . .when Naz goes closer to 1800. . . and that the Dow will fall hard as earnings are released and the FED is seen as too-little-too-late. I am saying the Dow and broader market is falling hard now and will continue through April also on earnings. But I am also saying that certain select techs, as they reach their bottoms may be the "safest" place to park some money, because I don't think the Nasdaq will see the other side of 1550. However, it wouldn't surprise me if the Dow were to drop all the way to 7000 this year. So where I see a possibility for 15% downside risk in the Nasdaq, I see 30% possible in the Dow and worse for the small-to-mid-caps or the Wilshire 5000 over the next few months. And further, I believe that certain select techs have already bottomed or are close to doing so and represent excellent value. The trick is in identifying them. Take WCOM, for example. We all recognized the value when it was under $14 in mid-December. It was a great buy!! Many of us then sold into the strength above $20. Once again, it is reaching the $15 level. Do I believe it will then head straight to single-digits? No. I think it will bounce again. Perhaps off $15 where it has recent support or $13.50 again like in December. Or even if it breaks $13.50, I don't see that much downside risk with the PE Ratio headed for single digits. However, upon recovery, I see it going right back to $22 in real hurry. Below $15, in my opinion, the parts of WCOM sold-off represent more value than the whole stock's market capitalization. So while you see cash as the ONLY place to run. I am seeing "certain select techs" as still the place to be at the right prices. I have been wrong before on some of these types. However, if you look at my "shopping lists" from the 2 days when techs had really dumped out, there were plenty of decent winners among the group. And if there was 1, then it is worth identifying the one. So it really boils down to risk tolerance. Those who have been holding on, are wanting to find a reason to give up. Who can blame them? It has been a brutal ride. Those who have been sitting on cash now for the better part of a year are ready to start putting their money back to work and take advantage of the extremes. And those who have been short-selling and actually increasing their equity or hedging their portfolios through all this mess, are ready to stop the madness, cover and turn long. It isn't hard to tell that short-sellers are getting over-extended and the greedy ones looking for Nasdaq 500 and Dow 5000 will be the biggest losers of all. Getting out NEAR the bottom is better than holding on for a particular bottom, IMO. And these days of waiting for the inevitable are best done with cash for sure!! But the cleverest of the traders will find the diamonds-in-the-rough. And if any of you have ever tried to hunt for diamonds in acres of small stones before as I have, you will know just how difficult spotting that single dark round stone-like diamond-in-the-rough can be. Rande Is