Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Storm who wrote (5550)	3/17/2001 12:32:29 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 6180

Yes, I did buy the same ones earlier, and sold them on the quick bounce to 36. I'm hoping for a bounce here, but it may not go any higher than 36. That looks like strong resistance on the chart. On the way down, that was support for quite a while, we bounced there several times. Then, we broke that support line, plunged, came back to that line (actually reached 37), stalled, and came down again. So, any rally may die there. Buying at-the-money calls will give me better returns than the 35s, if the stock only gets to 36. You called it a bet, and that's the right word. So many unpredictable variables that affect the result, like what the Fed is going to do, and how the market will react to it. I remember, when the Fed was raising rates, the market rallied in the days right after several of them. Made no sense, but it happened. I may very well sell my AMAT short on monday. I think the Fed will only lower 1/2%, and I think the market expects and hopes for more than that, so I don't expect a Fed-induced rally (speaking very short-term). But, if I get a chance to cover my AMAT short near 40 on monday, I'll probably take it. Everyone is predicting a rally in Nasdaq, and everyone says its a bear rally and the right thing to do is sell into it. I've heard this repeatedly in the business press and on CNBC. Makes we wonder if the rally happens, or is very small. I haven't decided about averaging down on TXN. I think the PE has gotten compressed about as much as its going to, I don't see a lot more downside left. When you're down from 100 to 31, you know at least 2/3 of the air is out of the stock, right? I mean, we're not going to get into negative or imaginary numbers on the stock price.

To: Rick Storm who wrote (5550)	3/22/2001 10:05:39 AM
From: Ally	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

Jacob, I agree with most of your discipline (PEG<1) in determining a buy. The main observation I would make is the forward PG growth figure. Using a number by looking back at past 5yr historical growth is a traditional way of ascertaining this number, but to what extent of reliability? This is the area where most valuation techniques are susceptible to surprises, up or down. Not that I know what a better answer is, just an observation, and wondering how to deal with such uncertainty. With respect to TA, seems to me that there is a conflict in the 2 disciplines. FA attempts to determine "correct" price to pay. TA discipline attempts to identify a strong trend... requires a stock to already moved and be clearly on upside trend before buying. For instance, at today's share price of $36, a TA practitioner might be willing to jump in when it goes higher on the premise that the stock has broken out. OTOH, a FA practioner would say stock is over valued due to PEG exceeding 1 while nothing has change in the dim prospects of semi-conductors business cycle. Again, no quick answer I know about, just wondering how a seasoned investor would reconcile the difference in discipline between FA and TA when making buy/sell decisions. Best regards, Ally