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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (12490)	3/17/2001 1:46:28 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17183

Re: Fed lag The rule of thumb seems to be that it takes 6-9 months for a Fed action to be fully felt by the economy. Since the last rate hike (50 bp) was in May 2000 that means that it fully hit the economy in the November-February timeframe which, curiously enough, is exactly when the tech leaders started seeing orders fall off a cliff. Conversely, the January 100 bp cut should fully impact in the June-September timeframe which is probably why a lot of folks are talking about a fourth-quarter rather than a second half pickup in the economy. However, there are a lot of crosscurrents at work. Bush clearly wants to push his tax plan through Congress and the weak market is really greasing the wheels on Capitol Hill these days so a continuation of the downtrend in the short term is certainly in the administration's interest. The last year has been painful for a lot of folks, including yours truly, but I'm willing to live with another month or so of it if that's what it takes to beat Congress into submission on meaningful tax relief this year. That's the sort of short-term pain long-term gain that most investors can appreciate.