SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Casaubon who wrote (72466)3/17/2001 1:20:17 PM
From: KymarFye  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
Dude, I know you addressed your question to Bearic von Bobernov, but what trendline are you thinking of? I can't draw one that wasn't definitively broken, with a bullet - or a big red dagger of a down stick - last week. By my calculations, the previous week closed just about right on it, but any last bullish hope that it might hold or that a penetration below it might merely represent a downside feint (a massive stop run), seems to have been answered. By my measurements, it was not only violated, it was blasted - gapped right through. Along with all the other former support lines that would now probably offer resistance, that trendline ought to offer resistance even in the event that some future bear market rally manages to break through the gap. As one might expect, the action last week repeatedly failed, at the bottom of that gap (2025 -30 area - also the trendline area), which was previously marked out as strong-looking support - double support converted into double resistance. (Provided for some of the highest probability, least difficult short sales ever on Thursday, by the way.) An easy reversal back up over this level would be a technical miracle. It's hard for me to imagine a chart pattern making a more definitively negative statement.

The trendline, along with the bull market it supported for a decade, is dead (as support). Long live the trendline (as resistance)!

Take out your l-t Nas chart: Friday closed right on the '98 shelf - last high prior to the big '98 down move that culminated in the October crash. Next lower support would be around 1760 ('97 shelf, upper level of congestion around early '98 lows, and reaction high prior to October crash). Though like others I'm expecting some kind of rally sometime soon to slow this parabolic descent, the potential support levels (downside targets) below 1760 are pretty easy to make out.



To: Casaubon who wrote (72466)3/17/2001 1:32:46 PM
From: bobby beara  Respond to of 99985
 
C, i think we could make it to the 98 lows on the nasdaq.



To: Casaubon who wrote (72466)3/17/2001 2:19:03 PM
From: KymarFye  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
OK - did you mean maybe the line you can draw from the early 91 - 95 lows - also happens to intersect, as a trading channel the key lows all the way to '75 - violated only by Saddam crash in '90, never re-visited after '95? Could be a good thought... Would be passing through 1462 today, and rising, of course... Could intersect higher support (?) levels in the coming months... Guess the last Bull wouldn't give in until the absolute lowest trendlines... from '74 low or '75 through Saddam low were taken out...