To: Trading Machine who wrote (9273 ) 3/19/2001 9:13:23 AM From: John Harton Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051 Re: Mulling it over Not offering a position here, just some thoughts.. - Did we avoid a "Black Friday" merely because of options expiration and\or the uncertainty of FOMC Tuesday?(Big Al's final threat to the dancing bears). So now "black Mon? Tue? Wed? -Or is this what the capitulation feels like at a market bottom? -If this is the markets' reaction to merely slowing rates of (obviously unsustainable) earnings growth, then what should we expect for negative earnings? Re: the margin call/ short squeeze dichotomy -If the market is poised for a sharp move in either direction, wouldn't it take a multiday rally to bring in the effects of a short squeeze acceleration? -Conversely, aren't we already under at least the beginnings of margin call pressure? Events: -If there is a LTCM or Japan collapse situation imminent, why aren't the financials\brokers looking worse? GS and MER were up 5 and 3 points respectively, last week. -Or is that a head and shoulders on the BKX? -Is the SOX the last line of defense for the techs? Wouldn't an up day today give us an approximate morning star on AMAT? Stategies: -Get out all together or -Buy protective puts on holdings to give a temporary floor or -Buy puts on PE absurdities (eg RIMM) -Whatever happened to "short against the box" -Tighten stops (What about the morning gap down?) OR -What a buying opportunity this is??GG Personally, I trimmed several holdings on Friday, Got too greedy with my MSFT calls (set my exit 1/4 pt too high), still have QQQs (gulp), now about 65% cash, 10% XAU, and 25% nervous. Good Luck -John PS Didn't mean to appear too flippant last week when so many good dudes were taking on serious water. -