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To: Dave Gore who wrote (472)3/17/2001 2:04:25 PM
From: mohammedg  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 589
 
By the way, the easy shorting is over, so most who are not highly experienced in choppy, whipsaw market trading would probably be best served to be very careful and not lose anymore capital. Excellent commentary, I will have to take time to read the commentary from the last few weeks to keep abreast of the issues. Short trading is now like walking a tightrope, long trades have more upside, its only a matter of days before we might think of resuming going long. I myself have been trading only 6 months but watch carefully from those that have succeeded and according to what I've seen, the shorters were still holding their shorts waiting on a last ditch expectation that Allen would only lower the percentage rates to .5 leading to one last hoorah for the shorters. This might happen but its a gamble.



To: Dave Gore who wrote (472)3/17/2001 6:14:14 PM
From: DebtBomb  Respond to of 589
 
Nice post Dave, I agree.



To: Dave Gore who wrote (472)3/18/2001 7:27:30 AM
From: ChrisJP  Respond to of 589
 
Great post, Dave. <eom>



To: Dave Gore who wrote (472)3/18/2001 8:03:18 PM
From: bigbuk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 589
 
Good post Dave,

Most forget what it is like to make 15% on a good year rather than banking 15% a month or a week. The bull of 99 was like a ATM $$$$$$$$$ the Bear of 2000-01 is a ATM as well but only if you not a knifecatcher.
CONSOLIDATION FOLKS!!!!!!! with out it you won't see or be able to call a bottom.

All mkts need more of a haircut and will prolly get it the next few months. Dow to 7k? Compx to 1400? well time will tell but my money has not and won't be long till the consolidation happens. Mind you there will be bounces and news plays etc but over the direction will be south. And for the bulls that cannot fathom the fact of not being able to pass up these deals-- the steel mess gloves your only hope.

NT.nyse to 7.00? likely
CSCO to 10.00 likely

MSFT sub 40.00 likely..

you can get short term paper that actually pays you not to come and knife catch.

BB



To: Dave Gore who wrote (472)3/18/2001 8:54:34 PM
From: David Lee Smith  Respond to of 589
 
SI sould mark your posts as one of the best. It's funny how bearish everyone is now. Imagine CSCO at 10! I think its going to $2!! It was $0.50 in 1990 and losing cash since. Propped up by fuzzy accounting (stock options and pooling of interests). But wait, CSCO wasn't alone. Many others companies sinned too, like MSFT.

This is very unfortunate. The tech companies held great promise and many choose greed over development. It takes WORK to change the world, and it looks like get rich quick managements and investment bankers brought down a technology revolution that could have benefited millions.

If any managements are reading this I challenge you to buy-back your disgustingly overvalued stock, even at these "bargain" prices. You won't. Check out the insider sales websites and just look at all the cowards lining up to dump their shares at these "bargain" prices.

I think its likely to get very bad before its all over. However, don't hold your breath going short. This is a choppy market and the direction is down. However, there will be sharp 10-20% bear market rallies in the NAZ on the way.

I think the QQQ is safe until the next round of earnings warnings in June. Actual earnings will likely exceed gloomy forcasts in April and the FED will likely have constructive things to say. The tax cut machine will continue to gain momentum. We are not in a recession, just a NAZ crash. The NAZ will not put us in a recession either. It will slow things down to about GDP of 0-1%.

More importantly, the NAZ crash will teach a whole generation of new investors the meaning of risk. It will make IPO's more meaningful in the future. Technology companies will rebuild themselves with WORK and managements will manage operations and not earnings estimates. A better world will come out of the rubble.