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Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (1237)	3/17/2001 4:29:11 PM
From: kirby49	Respond to of 5144

Peter: CBC Newsworld on channel 23 has people actually talking on TV about palladium. Bob

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (1237)	3/17/2001 4:31:28 PM
From: Shaw	Respond to of 5144

Hey Guys, Peter, actually the conventional wisdom out there is pointing to a 50bps. The Fed fund futures as of last Monday had almost a zero chance of a 75, but a 26% chance of an additional 25 before the next meeting. That has changed somewhat with the carnage over the last several days but it hasn't been priced in with equity values at all, imo. A recent survey of Wall St. bigwigs had about a 50/50 split for a 50 vs. a 75, but most folks have said the 75 is wishful thinking. A few of them even said "I dont know what the 'ell is going to happen". Very strange and ripe, imo. A 75 would come as a surprise, imo. A short covering rally alone (not to mention if a meagre % of the cash on the sidelines getting back in) could start the oversold bounce. 50bps? Big yawn and resume selling I think.

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (1237)	3/17/2001 4:45:40 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 5144

EXF Hourly chart on the TSE stockcharts.com[w,a]eicayymy[dc][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] Positives: everything appears to be in an uptrend in this timeframe. CMF positive (not sure of the value of CMF in an intraday chart), Macd @ 0 line (dangerous to anticipate if it crosses over as Cush has pointed out many times), Slo Stoc heading north & ditto for RSI bouncing off 50. After putting in (what appears to me as ) a hammer on Mar 13 @3:00 EXF clearly reversed trend in the hourly timeframe. That is confirmed by +D1 crossing over the -D1 on March 14. Which is still in place. The ADX suggest the prior trend is weakening. The signal for me came @ 3:30pm on Mar 16 with the 5 ema crossing over the 21 ema on large volume. Notwithstanding all the noise, in the market, (which I try to filter out)this is without a doubt, a risky move... Note that the longer timeframes point to the downtrend continuing (ie: daily, weekly) Daily chart is kinda interesting as well... stockcharts.com[w,a]dicayymy[dc][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] Note the last candle & histogram on the Macd as well as the Slo stoc once again heading North under 20 EARNINGS out on Monday... I don't usually hold over earnings...too risky PHPI Regards, Peter