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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ted Downs who wrote (72501)	3/17/2001 6:01:36 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I see Wensday as the worst day of the week. Monday neutral to negative, Tuesday negative, Wensday Black; Th & Fri. up. Steve D.

To: Ted Downs who wrote (72501)	3/17/2001 6:20:32 PM
From: Eurobum1	Respond to of 99985

Ted... Everything is based on Greed and Fear. It works for both camps (Bull vs Bear). All you need is stay Neutral. Watch the tape and try to catch the reversal if it's really happened. Otherwise, follow the herd and go short if you know what you're doing. The rest is just guessing work. The market is neutral, only the people is emotional. I don't try to predict the future. The whole week, I caught few reversals (big or small) and I also got few small loss (using stop loss) when I was wrong but at the end of the week I have a positive account. Example : Short SONS @ 27 5/8 cover @ 25 1/4 on Thursday (I closed all positions at the end of the day, tale no POW). Friday SONS drop all the way to 21 1/2 (no position)then it reversed to 25 when the rest of the market is tanking. This is just illustrated that shorting at the bottom is a dangerous game. On the other hand, I bought VRTS @ 53 7/8 sold it 10 mn later @ 55 1/16. It dropped back to 52 1/2 at the very end of the day then popped back to 55 1/8 during the last 5 mn. I was amazed with the fluctuation. I'm not a daytrader but preferred to be a swing trader in this crazy market. Good luck to you next week. P.S.: The NAZ is reaching the temp bottom but what's holding me back is the bubble in the Dowdy.

To: Ted Downs who wrote (72501)	3/17/2001 11:18:58 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Why does everybody like to bash Mr. G.? Lowering interest rates by 1% won't much change the fact that corporate earnings are down. The tech stocks were bolstered tremendously by some false assumptions about the value of building out the Internet and telecommunications. The profits didn't add up and business turned down as a result. Interest rate cuts will help to stimulate demand and long term will bolster the economy but it will not revive the "new economy" to the fantasy island it was once thought to be. The market will move up when investors see a light at the end of the tunnel for improved sales and earnings. Valuations of most high tech stocks are still high. Sales and earnings will continue to trend down for at least two more quarters. The NASDAQ is still valued higher than historical norms; as earnings estimates come down the stocks should continue to follow. We are due a technical bounce but in this market that may be 1-3 days and then the market will be right back down. Greenspan is doing his job by providing a stable and efficient market. The majority of instability has been caused by not increasing the margin requirement for stock purchases and decreasing interest rates too much during the "Asian crisis" period. That pumping of liquidity helped to distort the market into the bubble that has now burst. The biggest problem with the stock market is caused by investors who lost sight of valuations and the risks that can occur with exciting "new economies". I hope Greenspan lowers interest rates by no more than 50 basis points.