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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (72504)	3/17/2001 5:57:52 PM
From: Doug	Respond to of 99985

Casaubon: Thanks; the trendlines are good reminders. I disagree about the timing. An increase of money supply is more likely to halt the slide or reverse it than accelerate the downtrend. If that is so and it seems logical, we should first see a spike lasting for a few weeks. Then as earnings come in in April/May and the CC's dont point to a recovery, we should reverse to within the trend lines. We dont need to hit the support this year ; next year would be quite permissible. How do you or any one else correlate the predictions off these charts with the interest rate cuts.? ----Thx.

To: Casaubon who wrote (72504)	3/17/2001 6:02:16 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

Casaubon, LG has also mentioned the very same rising '74 trading channel more than a few times, and mentioned that it would not be unlikely to see it come into play. If I'm not mistaken however, I believe his target was for later this summer. I think it seems very plausible either sooner, or later.

To: Casaubon who wrote (72504)	3/17/2001 6:11:07 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Maybe later I'll post a different take on the same trendlines. At this point I'd say: 1) I think his charts are helpful, but by my lights AA fudges a bit too much in favor of parallelism, and may therefore miss some other intersections and alternative lines. 2) Anchoring the longest trend line from the absolute low may not be the most meaningful way to draw the line. There's a body of argument (or at least a tradition) that favors use of the low following the first reaction high after a major low. 3) A trendline with multiple touches is held to be more likely valid than a very long trendline based on two touches. I'd consider this so even if the former includes some violations followed by re-confirmations - as in AA's solid blue channel line which somewhat corresponds to the "early 90s/70-80s" line I mentioned in my previous post. 4) If AA's lowest trendline (connecting the Nixon low to the Saddam low and extending forward) does prove significant, there's no reason to believe that it MUST do so this year, at the level mentioned. Such an event can't be excluded from the realm of possibility, of course. I see no reason as yet to consider it a probability. There is already substantial discussion in the media, paralleling discussion in this board, that, in suggesting the era of high returns is over, has implicitly pronounced the great Bull Market dead. I'm surprised the second part of this theme hasn't been taken up more dramatically somewhere.

To: Casaubon who wrote (72504)	3/17/2001 10:33:04 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99985

<That just seems too absurd. > it is absurd,the same stupidity of those i have heard argue that buy and hold method never fails and therefore it should never be violated because ,for instance, even if you bought all your stocks the day BEFORE the 1929 crash by 1954 you were at break even---give me a break! these guys are dangerous:) max

To: Casaubon who wrote (72504)	3/17/2001 11:12:30 PM
From: Ron	Respond to of 99985

Those trendlines on the SPX and COMPX charts are quite interesting. Seems to me one must weigh relative economic conditions along with such long term charts however. Somehow I don't see the SPX returning to its trendline coming from 1930. True, things economically could get a lot worse, but somehow I doubt they will return to the depths of the Great Depression.. . Once again asking, has anyone seen a recent recalculated average PE of the current market?