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To: John Madarasz who wrote (81997)3/17/2001 7:44:45 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 436258
 
Brafoo special on rate cuts in bear markets:

geocities.com

Dow Jones from 1914 with rate changes shown. I am calling this a draft at this point because I have not double checked the data. Comments and corrections are invited.

Cheers.



To: John Madarasz who wrote (81997)3/17/2001 9:36:32 PM
From: dpl  Respond to of 436258
 
Thanks.I am only familiar with Investors Intelligence.Been watching it since 1980.
An indicator I use for major bear market bottoms is.

bull/bulls+bears

I take a 10 week moving average of this and when it gets well below 40%(usually 32-38%)you are at the bear low.

In big bottoms like 1982 and 1994 you sometimes get double readings.These usually mean you will have huge bull markets.

This is only good for major lows not short term or big bear market rallies.

David


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