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Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cush who wrote (1251)	3/17/2001 10:22:04 PM
From: Shack	Respond to of 5144

Uh oh...looks like there's gonna be shootout. <g> Please keep in mind that this is all my opinion. I could be wrong and if you talk to my girlfriend, that's more often the case than not.<g> I don't think of the stock market as a Vegas type situation. For me, the stock market represents a place where funds are invested in industry. As the markets have tanked, those funds are drying up. I think that's the underlying premise of the markets..a place where funds are invested in industry. However from time to time bubbles DO appear. In fact, whatever bubble there was, was IMO mostly in the heads of old economy thinkers Suddenly I feel like a cranky old curmudgeon!<g> Seriously, the railroads and autos were viable businesses and industries, but there were speculative bubbles in those sectors too. I'm not equating the internet bubble with Tulipmania. I believe in the internet and its possibilities. Hell I wouldn't be talking to you right now without it. But even you have to admit there was cash thrown willy nilly at the markets by folks who couldn't tell you what Orcale or Cisco even made! If you don't believe there was(is) a bubble we may just have to agree to disagree on most of these matters. I still love ya Cush! As for the old economy, regardless of the strength of the underlying business, the fact that the earnings multiples are still at historical highs tells me that a valuation correction is due to hit there too. It is simply not prudent to buy GE at 36 times next years earnings. Nothing to do with a lack of cash/liquidity available for the markets. The money that people would have been willing to invest in entrepreneurial growth in science, medicine, and industry in general, isn't going to be there I agree 100% with you. Its going to be tough for startups to get the money they need to get off the ground. Its sad really that many babies will get thrown out with the bathwater. But 90% of the startups in the last few years should never have been given money. They were in the business of selling stock. The underlying business models were flawed form the git-go. I sincerely hope capital continues to find its way to viable businesses because that is the foundation of our economy. Perhaps the Fed could help change that sentiment I also agree with you here. Low rates will have a positive effect on sentiment and I think the last consumer confidence data (last week?) showed an improvement. The consumer is simple too tapped out to do anything about it. A negative savings rate in the US is the number one obstacle to a recovery. They are out of fuel. I don't think the LOW interest rates created a bubble. No they didn't CAUSE the bubble but it provided the right conditions. It is only the reckless lenders and consumers that ultimately cause bubbles. But you don't necessarily believe there was a bubble so the point is moot. Anyways Cush, I do enjoy the debate even if we don't agree. I appreciate your viewpoints and hope you are right...or at least more right. We can still me friends even though you're from the Land 'O Timbits! Cheers Shack