Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19702)	3/17/2001 11:02:27 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Good question. You seem to feel we need a three day washout to generate a serious rally... That could happen but I'm not so sure it is necessary. We have been in a practically non stop 1000 point decline since the end of January. Margin call has beget margin call for weeks. Put to call ratio is beyond rally levels. Bears are roaring and bulls are a dying breed if not extinct. Blood is in the streets. This market just needs a good psychological reason to force the unwinding of hedges and the closing of short positions to get a pretty good sized rally going. Many bears are talking about the complacency of the longs but the real complacency, as I read it, is on the short side. The only long term hold position that has made any sense for over a year now has been a short. Even you are convinced that whatever materializes out of anything but a washout would be suspect and, anyway, at best all we have to look forward to is a rally inside a bear market. Supposedly the next good support area is 1650... Some say we have to wait for the market to land there before we can expect a meaningful bounce. Maybe, but in a bear market, index support areas don't mean so very much and tend to dissolve as often as they provide support. On the other hand all it may take is a good catalyst to begin to convince some folks to unwind. When it begins, whether humbly or with fireworks, what will be important, IMO, is if it builds up a steam and hence a life of its own. Greenie has allowed this market to slide for several weeks rather than try to nip it in the bud with a surprise third rate cut. A bold cut tomorrow or Tuesday would IMO be adequate catalyst for the oversold market to turn with or w/out (more) washout. A 50 basis or less, will likely give you exactly what you are calling for...disappointment, washout on Wednesday and then the beginning of a sustained rally. I simply favor a more radical cut and wouldn't mind Greenie trumping the FOMC meeting by a day. Sorry but it is the fault of the turnips. Their missing the mark this time has left the rabble to make up their own market scenarios. <g>