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To: puborectalis who wrote (796)3/17/2001 9:27:04 PM
From: sirdar  Respond to of 3294
 
to fa

its ok

things change. be flexible.

love to you,

s



To: puborectalis who wrote (796)3/18/2001 11:02:54 AM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3294
 
the Fed has never cut rates by 75 basis points under
Greenspan


Has the FED under Greenspan ever cut interest rates by two 1/2 point cuts in a single month? I don't think history is very much help in predicting our immediate future.

I agree with you that it will only be 1/2 point and the market will not like it because of all the hype for 3/4 point cut.

In our favor is the fact that sometime these cuts must start taking effect. Most wags say 3 months or so from the first cut you see something. That means sometime in April.

It kind of squares with some things we are hearing:
1) WCOM saying it will hit its estimates this year.
2) The Taiwanese chip makers saying Mid April to Mid May they will be caught up with the semi overhang.
3) CIEN is not taking back all its positive statements.

IMHO,
1/2 point cut.

Maybe the market sells off for a day or so.

Intelligent investors realize that we have had 3 cuts and it is time "don't fight the FED" starts to mean something.

Market does some kind of bear rally.

A whole lot then depends on news reports. AMCC reports 2nd week of April and they carry a lot of weight.