Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (1868)	3/17/2001 11:44:19 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried, I suspect everyone else is out or asleep so it looks like the thread is ours. gg First with regard to <<I'm looking at OSX stocks again because this is one of the few somewhat sane sectors. Whenever I mention it on a tech thread I get polite silence, though. :)>> They will soon refer to you as Guru Gottfried when the energy stocks become the new "can't lose" bubble stocks. gg I may well be wrong but it seems clear to me that energy companies are going to be a bigger part of the economic pie than they have been in the last decade and that even with all of the ups and downs the charts will climb longer term. Second with regard to the book to bill charts for the semi-equips, one of the reasons they bottom so quickly and then start to move up is that when business looks bad and semiconductor chip companies see over supply, they hunker down and stop spending very quickly. With a three month average the view is cushioned but the impact is not. Coming off of the huge billings we have had with all of the semi-equip spending, the chart will likely go quite low. The chart may then go up in v shape but what does that mean if orders double where orders are .5 billion and shippings are .25 billion while the shippings over the last year averaged 2.5 billion. I think this is good only to the extent it appears that the long term climb will be back to 2+ billion in shippings and orders. It will be the increase in orders for chip intensive gadgets or at least the prospect for sharply increased orders that drives that expectation. Of course if everyone retools to copper and 300 mm or 12 inch wafers and those that don't fear getting left behind the orders will go up much faster than retail demand would otherwise indicate. I know that a rise in the book to bill off of bottoms is a good indicator of the next cycle and that it would be great to buy before the down is made, but I remember that in 98 the companies were at cash value when I margined into them and they have a long way to go yet before they get to cash value. I think the current thinking is that the bottom may occur within the time frame you suggest but the question is how low will that bottom be. If intel and others maintain their projected level of spending we will have a bottom at one place, if they lower it we will have a lower bottom, lower bottom stock prices and a steeper climb back up. I want some idea of where the bottom of the descent is before I go long. Having said that, it is absolutely clear in my mind that at these prices, off margin and with a time horizon that did not require that you sell these stocks, investing in the strong companies right now would net at least a triple. If you see a flaw in this thinking please let me know. I am thinking as I type and that can be almost as dangerous for me as not thinking as I type. Ed