Lynn...with all due respect....and this is coming from somebody that thinks we get worse before we get better........
You were always late to the party last year...don't make the same mistake this year. Why, if you did not go short at 4500, 4000, 3500, 3000, 2500, 2000......are you going short now???? I am not saying we dont have more downside, but just look at the numbers......eventually we go higher. It may not be for awhile, or it could be soon....nobody knows...not you, not I, not the anlaysts, not the bulls, the bears or any talking head you see on TV.
You are better off, in the face of lowering rates, and the unknown factor of when we move up, put your money into cash if you think we are going lower, because there is more upside then downside at this point and we dont know when it will turn. Think about the shorts...some party they have been having...but they have a limit on their sucess...sunw can only fall anoth $18....at what price do the shorts cover?? probably long before sunw gets to zero....my point is, most of the shorts I know are looking very closely....they see the mistakes we bull made by not seeing the right time to get out....you have intc and csco and sunw and jdsu and so many stocks that are down, the shorts are looking and going "ok, lets not get greedy...lets watch very closely...greeny is lowering rates....trillions of dollars waiting for the right time to come to the market....hmmm, how much longer should I hold my short in this or that ?"......Like I said, I think the market looks ugly, but I would never in a million years short right now....sheez, just think, your long and ride it all the way down, then you go short and ride it all the back up....talk about a slap in the face.....nope, I just see no reason in shorting now, if you didnt short before...being late to the party is normally a costly experience....nope, I do think we are going lower, BUT, I also think now is the opportune time to slowly and cautiously, buy qaulity on the dips, for the future.....eventually we go up.....stock up now.....be cautious, by the right companies and buy in slowly.....the dow has some high pe stocks that may be good shorts, but I just wouldnt take that risk....notice while nazzy was getting pummelled, it wasnt headline material....now that the dow is getting whacked, it's on the front page of the paper, and you walk into a bowling alley for gods sake and everybody is talking about the dow going down so much....yea, right....the dow hasn't seen anything like the naz has, but it's gotten everybodies attention, so even though i think the dow needs to come down more, i just also wouldnt bet on how much down, because that will more then likely be held up better by the powers to be, then naz was.......just my opinion......just think about this one point...if you were short....and you were up 75% because the stock is down 75%, how much more can you make, and when should you take your profits and run? You can only make another 25%, ans thats if your stock goes to zero...more then likely, if it is down 75%, it wont go down enoigh to take the chance in shorting it.....thats why I am pretty high on SUNW. Finished green on friday...one of the few. PE is now reasonable. They feel they are a good enough investment at current price to initiate a 1.5 billion dollar share buy back program. With this in mind, and the stock beaten down to $18.50 ( low so far was $16's), if I was short, I would cover...and If I wanted to go long, I would do so cautiously, as sunw at $18.....how low can it go....zero...only a loss of $18 per share.Yet, go short and whats your potential gain versus loss in that scenario...... man, I have lost far more then $18 per share on about every stock I have except for recent purchases, so I'd rather be cautiously going long, saving dollars to cost average down a few bucks and I would look at beaten down quality tech between $5 - $20, where downside is minimal and upside is far greater.
Anyway, just be careful...even if we are in abear market, so still have to ask, ow much further down certain issues can go.......naz hits 1000, that'll be pretty bad, huh? Heck, thats only catching 800 points and thats IF it goes that low which would be major....where were you on the shortside for the other 4500 points??
Please be careful...just dont want to see you get hurt....bear or not, now is the time to look at adding quality...cautiously....in my opinion. If you need to money tomorrow, then discount my advice and stay in cash....if you need the money short term, then you dont want to be long or short at this juncture...if you can wait 3 years, then it's probably time to buy as we see more weakness which is expected, I just dont think it's enough weakness to warrant going short now, as I said earlier, as stock down 75%, is only gonna go down how much more ???
best and be careful
keith |
