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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37321)	3/18/2001 1:18:40 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Jim is questioning that chart also Message 15520236

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37321)	3/18/2001 7:15:03 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 50167

Nice post. Re: "NAZ at 5000 plus was mirage and hopefully NAZ at 2000 may be an opportunity" Naz at 2000 is an opportunity. It may not be the best opportunity, but it is assuredly better than any other in the past couple of years. Re: "If optimism and making sense is termed a bullishness than may be I am proud to be associated with it, ..." Well said. The key to investing in times like these is to keep a level head, proceed unemotionally, don't get in a hurry to buy or sell, and don't make any big bets one way or the other. Make gradual moves --- dollar cost average into the market at a leisurely pace. (In my opinion.) Re: "I totally know that this has totally discredited me," Not true. Not in my eyes, anyway. Best wishes, I2

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37321)	3/18/2001 7:26:54 PM
From: CareyM	Respond to of 50167

Your credibility is stronger than ever. Stay the course my friend!

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37321)	3/18/2001 11:48:37 PM
From: jtech	Respond to of 50167

I only try to discredit the ones that I respect the most, so I can make my own decisions without bias. I still believe were headed down but with brief rallies. The sox is the heart of the comp and I think the heart is ready to be surgically removed. Editorial 3/19/01 By Mortimer B. Zuckerman editor-in-chief Japan on the brink Weather forecasters may have sounded a false alarm for much of the East Coast last week, but economists have harder evidence that an economic tsunami is bearing down on Japan. A financial disaster of the size implicit in their latest numbers would send huge waves everywhere. Japan is the largest economy in Asia. The spending power of its 127 million residents exceeds that of the 1.8 billion inhabitants of East and Southeast Asia. It is also the world's largest gross and net international lender, with over $2.5 trillion outstanding–so that its financial troubles could disrupt global financial markets. A decade has passed since Japan's "bubble" economy burst. Its stock market is now down 67 percent from 1990. Urban land prices have fallen over 80 percent since their peak, with the greatest percentage drop last year. The value of the currency has eroded. The collapse of national wealth is estimated to exceed $18 trillion, or almost four times Japan's gross domestic product. During this period, the United States added $22 trillion in private net worth alone. The book net worth of Japanese companies is 6.5 times their market value; the net worth of households has declined by at least a third below their cumulative actual savings. This asset collapse has virtually bankrupted the Japanese financial system and suppressed aggregate demand. Japan has failed over an entire decade to restore self-sustaining economic growth. In the past nine quarters, Japan's nominal GDP growth has exceeded zero only twice, and the country is now into its second recession. Too scared to spend. Virtually all the economic indicators are grim. Output, prices, jobs, profits, incomes, business investments, consumption, and tax revenue are falling. Budget deficits are soaring. Deflation is accelerating. Higher oil prices and a shrinking U.S. economy are limiting net export revenue, which has been the growth engine that has pushed Japan out of past recessions. The Japanese have lost so much confidence in the future that they are deferring consumption and investment and instead are saving about 30 percent of household income, compared with zero in the United States. Bankruptcies have soared, piling new losses on lenders faster than they can write off old ones. In the past decade, banks have written off almost twice their entire capital and reserves. Bad loans are generally thought to be 50 percent worse than the stated figures, since banks have overstated the collateral they have on loans, forgiven debt, or provided credit to keep deadbeat companies going rather than confront their bankruptcies. Unsurprisingly, the credit ratings of the banks are suspect. They have to pay a risk premium that translates into higher interest rates, which is tantamount to tightening monetary policy–exactly what they don't need. Large companies are so deeply indebted that it is estimated even a 1 percent rise in interest rates would make it impossible for almost half of them to keep their loans current. Domestic bank lending has dropped to a nine-year low. The banks hoped that a buoyant economy and a rising stock market would save them, since they are huge equity holders. Now share prices are tumbling with the risk that banks will unload equity, accelerating the fall in stock prices. The government is trying to help. The central bank has lowered interest rates to 0.15 of 1 percent, compared with 5.5 percent in the United States. Hundreds of billions of pump-priming dollars in taxpayer money have been poured into public works, generating an annual debt of 7 percent of GDP. Now Japan's national and regional debt total about 140 percent of the nation's GDP, a ratio higher than any other industrial nation has ever had to deal with. Just servicing debt consumes about two thirds of the central government's tax revenue. So with zero nominal interest rates and massive budget deficits, the government is largely out of policy bullets. Japan faces a loss of confidence by domestic and foreign investors, who are bailing out of yen-denominated assets while they can. The lack of confidence in the ability of policymakers to turn things around creates the risk that any piece of bad news might panic the bond, stock, or currency markets. In a matter of weeks, a run could wreck the financial system and produce an economic collapse of the kind not seen since the Great Depression. Who would have imagined a decade ago that Japan would be in such a mess? The metaphor Japan expert David L. Asher of the American Enterprise Institute chose a year ago was that the country risked a financial Mount Fuji eruption. The world can hear the rumblings.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (37321)	4/18/2001 3:28:21 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

We are here because we thought about it, not a fluke.. from IQBAL LATIF at Mar 18, 2001 6:16 AM I wish someone makes those comparisons and answer those questions I have raised. In markets and life only one thing prevails for the long run that is sensibility and ability to discern facts when muddled with fiction. In this process of discovery one may have problems to make 'current conventional wisdom' and 'logical conclusions'to coexist, but 'ponzi pyramading schemes' on the up and blind selling on the way down have only continued if we have macro-economic conditions that may satisfy the continuation of such mirages, NAZ at 5000 plus was mirage and hopefully NAZ at 2000 may be an opportunity, a good investor realizes all that, makes his picks and delgiently waits for the greener pastures..If optimism and making sense is termed a bullishness than may be I am proud to be associated with it, I totally know that this has totally discredited me, have lost too many friends and have lost the credibility of the 'Idea thread' such flimsy things life is based on, but I got to admist and got to make my trades on reason and not herd.