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To: limtex who wrote (82049)	3/18/2001 1:49:05 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<I wonder what Mr Fleckenstein reckons will be the number of unemployed as the disaster unfolds?>> Fleck's a hedge fund manager, not an economist. However, he'd likely reckon that the number of unemployed will rise, just like it has with every other recession this century (probably more than usual, too, because of the malinvestment in tech and internet bubble trash, as well as equities in general that preceded the bust). If you'd prefer to look at it another way, he'd say unemployment was held artificially low for the last 4 years or so due to increased debt spending in general by Americans financing dubious ventures and increasing the aggregate demand. He has argued for years that it was preventible (probably as late as '98). At this point, he'd also probably say that the best thing to do is to let the cycle, so long delayed due to reckless monetary policy (looseness on the part of the Fed and mortgage lenders), finally run its course. If it takes down a major bank or two, so be it....better to have it happen now than to let it drag on for 10+ years by avoiding the recognition of bad debts a la Japan. If you really want to know what Fleck thinks, why not ask him yourself? His email is: fleckrap@home.com Regards Patron