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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eims2000 who wrote (68578)	3/18/2001 1:22:39 PM
From: peter michaelson	Respond to of 122087

My market view is as simple as stepping back from this close up view of the Nazdaq graph that many seem to focus on. Step back so you are viewing 30 years, or with another index, 100 years. An average growth rate of 8% to 10% plus inflation is a reasonable expectation - perhaps too high since no economy can grow at such a rate. Apply this 8% growth to any year you choose that is more than 10 years ago - perhaps with one or two peaks excepted. You will see that we are still well above the average trend line. It is not unreasonable to expect this market to dip well below the long term trendline before it recovers. Anyway, that's my outlook. It's not very helpful in predicting short term performance, but I think it's true for a 10 year outlook. Peter