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To: russwinter who wrote (66021)	3/18/2001 10:56:58 AM
From: marynell	Respond to of 116759

Russ and everyone, I agree with the scenario in which Japan will liquidate foreign assets to bring the money home as their collapse accelerates. But you should not underestimate the power of the U.S. government to bully other governments. The U.S. intelligence agencies are very powerful, they can bribe or threaten or blackmail foreign government leaders and businessmen, and I believe that all governments do this to the extent that they can and they perceive it to be in their best interests.

To: russwinter who wrote (66021)	3/18/2001 11:31:48 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116759

The commercials that are net long yen agree with you. The Japanese are holders of 45% of all US treasuries, with all the possible implications. A lot is tied to the faith in the greenbuck.

To: russwinter who wrote (66021)	3/18/2001 12:14:48 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

So how much impact would Japan pulling $2.5 trillion out of a $10 Trillion economy actually have, especially when Japan is so dependent upon export to sustain their economy. Listen, 1 in 4 Japanese(25%) are looking to retire within 5-10 years. They don't like foreign laborers into the country, and certainly seem unwilling to encourage them to become Japanese citizens. They are facing paying off a national debt equal to 130% of ther GDP, while 25% of their population are retired and spending their savings and not paying income taxes. On the other hand, here we have the US, with our national public debt representing 37% of our annual GDP, and the ability to import labor, and assimilate them into our society while our baby boomers retire, thus maintaining our tax base. So the question for Japanese bankers/investors.. is just what kind of cultural and political changes are they prepared to make to stimulate growth in their economy. Japanese society has historically been homogenous and even Xenophobic. So it's tough to spur economic growth. Their SS system has been increasingly dependent upon personal savings and pensions and any devaluation of the Yen is going to screw over these retirees and any purchasing power they would have. Of course, if a devaluation is too small, then they will adjust by saving 10% more, thus increasing deflationary effects as they buy even less. Unfortunately the move must be major and economically painful to savers, if Japan is going to be shocked out of its economic malaise. And I wonder how much financial pain the Japanese people will take until they realize they have to put those savings at risk again in investments and higher interest bearing instruments that don't currently exist in Japan. So the question is, would the Japanese savers be more willing to convert Yen to dollars, or to gold. Regards, Ron

To: russwinter who wrote (66021)	3/19/2001 7:09:58 AM
From: d:oug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

russ, In your post was the following. "Nikkei, today it is 12,000, so the capital base of Japan's banks and insurance companies has been largely wiped out." Is the following url to a Nikkei 225 the same one you reference? its a 16 year chart with a high of 40,000 in 1990 any way to get on same grid this and Dow & Nasdaq? if it was 40,000 then who or what went belly up after it downed to 20,000? so is them new players hurt on 20,000 to 12,000? quote.yahoo.com^N225&d=my What is this ? Oz cuts rate thanks doug