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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82062)	3/18/2001 1:58:14 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<Bush stating the obvious truth is a welcome change from all the lies we got the last 8 years. This isn't 1929 and we are fast approaching a healthy 4.5% unemployment rate, 2.5% GDP growth right where we were in 1982 and we know how things went from there.>> This isn't 1929, but one key difference between now and 1982 is personal indebtedness. The consumer will not be leading the charge to pull us out of recession here....they've had all the goodies they're gonna get (lower rates, refinancings pulling equity out of homes (except the tax cut, which will not be a major factor any time soon). Banks are pulling in their horns on C&I lending, and will only retrench further as the recession deepens. Every recession is different...this one has the distinct disadvantage of following the biggest investment mania since the South Seas Bubble. Regards Patron